Ever since Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) vetoed a major Republican-backed education bill, the signs have been piling up that he’s going to make the leap to running for Senate as an independent — if national Republicans don’t push him out of the race first.
“I’ve heard that there’s enormous chatter among staff in the Crist campaign. They’re all looking for jobs right now,” a Republican source in Florida told TPMDC. “They’re looking for jobs not because they think he’s going to quit, but because they think he’s going to run as an independent. And in my business you work on one team.”
Crist has reportedly pulled his ads in Tampa and Orlando against his rival in the Republican primary, Marco Rubio, suggesting that some major decision could be on the way. Meanwhile, the Hotline reported that GOP insiders are giving up on Crist staying in the race as a Republican, and that Crist is not returning calls from Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who had endorsed Crist a year ago. Erick Erickson — who is of course a long-time Crist foe and Rubio-backer — is floating chatter of Crist quitting the race entirely. And now NRSC executive director Rob Jesmer is gearing up to back Rubio, in a private e-mail asking political operatives to urge Crist to drop out and not go independent.
A Republican source confirmed to TPMDC that Cornyn tried to call Crist on Friday, and that Crist has not returned the message. The source also confirmed the e-mail from Jesmer, which asks recipients to tell Crist to drop out rather than mount an independent bid.
“We believe there is zero chance Governor Crist continues running in the Republican primary,” Jesmer wrote in the e-mail. “It [is] our view that if Governor Crist believes he cannot win a primary then the proper course of action is he drop out of the race and wait for another day.”
The TPM Poll Average has Crist trailing Marco Rubio by a margin of 59.1%-27.9%, a mirror image of where things were a year ago. A Quinnipiac poll from last week, however, suggested that Crist could potentially win as an indy against Rubio and the likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Kendrick Meek.
A source close Meek confirmed to TPMDC that the campaign is working out its own plans for what to do depending on Crist’s decision. Asked for their own opinion on which scenario would most benefit Meek’s chances, the source said: “It’s hard to say which most benefits us, but what would least benefit us would be Crist dropping out. We at least want both Crist and Rubio in there to fight it out, and leave us above the fray.”
The speculation about an independent Crist bid has heated up since his veto last week of a Republican-backed education bill. The legislation, which was passed through the Republican legislature in the face of massive protests from teachers, would have abolished tenure for new teachers and instituted strict merit pay guidelines. Since the veto, Crist has been vocally criticized by former Gov. Jeb Bush, and Crist’s long-time political mentor and campaign chairman, former Sen. Connie Mack, quit the campaign.
Crist himself seems to be no longer ruling out an independent bid. While campaigning over the weekend, Crist talked up his veto of the bill — going so far as to directly attack the Republican leadership in the legislature. “We got calls in our office, that not only were arms being twisted, they were being broken — to convince them to vote for this thing,” said Crist, also adding later: “You have to kind of scratch your head and think: Who is running the asylum?”
Perhaps the single biggest factor in Crist’s fall in the Republican primary has been his support in early 2009 for President Obama’s stimulus bill. Crist went so far as to appear at a rally with Obama to urge on the bill’s passage, and since then Rubio has been hammering away at the issue. In February this year, Rubio marked the one-year anniversary of that infamous rally by holding a money-bomb fundraiser that brought in $720,000 — and used as the banner image for the fundraiser’s Web page a picture of Crist and Obama about to hug.
