Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) barely hung on against an upstart conservative challenger in Tuesday’s primary, an ominous sign for the embattled governor as he turns to an uphill race for reelection.
Rauner edged out Illinois state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R) by just 52 percent to 48 percent with more than 90 percent of precincts counted in a race few thought would be competitive until its final days. The Associated Press has called the race.
Those results set off alarm bells in Illinois GOP circles, as Rauner already trails his Democratic challenger, billionaire businessman J.B. Pritzker, by double digits in public polls. Pritzker easily won his own primary.
“Tomorrow’s a new day and a win is a win. But it’s obvious the governor has a little work to do to put his party back together — all while fighting J.B. Pritzker,” said former Rauner strategist Lance Trover. “He’s got a heavy lift ahead. He’s in a Democratic-leaning state with an anti-incumbent mood hitting the nation.”
To have any shot in the general election, Rauner, who didn’t seem to realize he was in a real primary fight until weeks ago, will somehow need to woo back the conservative voters who rejected him Tuesday after he signed legislation to expand abortion access and protect undocumented immigrants in the state.
But he also needs to dramatically improve his standing with moderates in Chicago’s suburbs, who fueled his narrow win four years ago. Doing both at once is easier said than done. Rauner recently vetoed a gun control bill in an effort to solidify his standing within the GOP, infuriating many suburban moderates. And his constant fiscal battles with statehouse Democrats seem to be wearing on many swing voters who gave him a chance to shake up the struggling state four years ago.
Rauner himself seemed to acknowledge the obstacles in a less-than-victorious victory speech, imploring conservatives to rally to his side.
“To those around the state of Illinois who wanted to send me a message, let me be clear,” Rauner said. “I have heard you. I have traveled the state and I have listened to you. While we disagree on some things, let’s commit to working together on what unites us — the reforms we need to save our state.”
Even Rauner’s biggest political asset from his last race may not be much help heading into the fall. The multi-millionaire spent about $65 million to win his last race in 2014, heavily outspending his opponents in the race, and has dropped tens of millions more already in this contest. But Pritzker’s cash dwarfs Rauner’s, and the billionaire Democrat, who already spent close to $70 million to win his primary, is almost certain to have the edge in campaign spending in what observers say will likely be the most expensive statewide race in U.S. history.
“I’m not going to let Donald Trump have an inch of Illinois. And I will take every inch of Illinois back from Bruce Rauner,” Pritzker declared in his victory speech, taking aim at two lawmakers who are unpopular in the state.
And Ives wasn’t conciliatory as she conceded, calling him “the worst Republican governor in America.”
It appears for now that Rauner is the most endangered governor running for reelection in the country.
I’m not from Illinois, but Rauner strikes a raw nerve for me. And Ives give me hives.
Well, it’s sort of karmic in a grim way. Rauner, who bought himself the office, now gets that principle thrown right back in his face. You have to wonder whether a) Biss and Kennedy split the “reform” vote and b) whether Biss did any campaigning outside college towns. There was a huge undecided vote in this race and it seems to have broken almost entirely for Pritzker.
Hope Pritzker’s past coziness with Blagojevich doesn’t come back to haunt the Democratic ticket.
Primary turnout was low on the Democratic side and appalling on the Republican side. Illinois voters don’t exactly look excited, but especially not conservative Illinois voters. Democratic turnout probably about 1.35-1.4 million when it should have been over 1.5; GOP turnout 650,000 when it should have been a million. For reference the presidential was more than 2 million for the Dems and 1.4 million for the 'pubs.
Democratic primary turnout was much bigger than the 2014 primary, and Pritzker won it in a walk. Republican turnout was only 25% of what it was in the 2014 primary, and Rauner barely won it against a far right winger.
Good…this is a wake up call. Do NOT get too complacent Dems. We still have work to do before November!