Yesterday, Gallup posted a new study showing that the Republican Party has lost significant numbers of voters across nearly all demographics since 2001 — except for their conservative, church-going base. Republican self-identification is down from 32% in 2001 to 27% now, and including independents who lean GOP they’ve decreased from 44% to 39%.
So it’s worth asking: Do these numbers work out to a more right-wing GOP, one that will have even more trouble winning elections? The answer appears to be yes — at least for now.
I spoke with the Gallup study’s author, Jeffrey M. Jones, and he confirmed to me that the shrunken GOP is indeed more conservative. In 2001, core Republicans were 62% conservative, 31% moderate and six percent liberal. After Republican-leaners were pushed, all Republicans and leaners were 57% conservative, 35% moderate and 8% liberal.
But now, the core Republicans are 68% conservative, 27% moderate and 5% liberal. Including GOP-leaners, they are 71% conservative, 24% moderate and 3% liberal.
“Well, it definitely seems like at this point with the Republican percentage of the population being what it is , conservatives have a better chance of getting nominated,” said Jones. “I think you see that in Pennsylvania, which is why Specter decided not to be a Republican anymore.”
Jones explained that if the GOP wants to enlarge itself, all things being equal, the only realistic path is move to the center — but the current makeup of the party points towards nominating more conservative candidates. The party can’t rely on demographic shifts or population replacement — younger voters lean heavily Democratic, after all.
If all factors are not equal, though, the Republicans can change the game by actively working to improve the party’s image from the current doldrums. “The reason we’re seeing a lot of this is because of how poorly the last three or four years of the Bush Administration went,” said Jones, “and I think that is why we’ve seen this big shift.”
However, we shouldn’t make the mistake of thinking the current pattern will continue endlessly. A lot depends on events of the next few years, and how the Democrats actually manage things in office.
“That could change — we’ve seen quick changes before from one party to the other,” said Jones. “So I think that could change in the future – I don’t expect it to in the near term, but we’ve seen these big comebacks. The Democrats were seemingly dead in 2002.”
