Democrats are well-positioned to win two of their top Senate pickup opportunities, according to a pair of new polls.
Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) is in a dead heat with Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), with his reelection number below 40, in a new survey by the most reliable pollster in Nevada. And former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) has a narrow lead over Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) in another poll.
Heller has a 40 percent to 39 percent lead over Rosen in Nevada in a new survey conducted by Mark Mellman, former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-NV) longtime pollster and the man regarded by strategists in both parties as the one with the best numbers in the difficult-to-poll state. That’s a bad position to be in for an incumbent — especially as the poll shows Rosen still isn’t nearly as well-known and that President Trump’s approval rating is in the toilet in the swing state, with 39 percent of voters approving of the job he’s doing and 56 percent disapproving.
In Tennessee, Bredesen has a 46 percent to 43 percent lead over Blackburn in a new survey from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy. That’s the latest survey to find Bredesen, a well-known former governor, in the lead in the heavily Republican state.
While the candidates have similar name recognition in the poll, Bredesen starts out the race better-liked: 43 percent of voters have a favorable view of him to just 18 percent with an unfavorable view, as opposed to Blackburn’s 35 percent to 26 percent split.
Democrats have a slim path to winning back the Senate, as they’re defending 10 seats in states Trump carried last election and Heller is the only Republican running in a seat Trump lost. But if they can hold serve in their states and win both these races — a tall order — that would give them enough for a narrow majority. They’re also bullish about picking up a seat in Arizona and have some slim hopes about Texas, though they’re playing defense in a number of tough races — Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Montana and North Dakota — and losses in one or more of those elections would make it significantly harder for them to win a majority.
40% is hell of a low number for incumbent. Rosen is largely unknown. I’ll just go on record and say Heller is completely toast.
OMG to see Marsha Blackburn lose would be an extra early XMas gift. Please please please Santa…
As far as I’m concerned, Democrats need to win the Senate even more so than the House. I think it’s more than doable, and I still think there may be a Republican Senate seat or two that may wind up being far more competitive than we ever imagined. That’s why we need to fight like hell for every last seat. Leave nothing to chance.
Having the House would be grand, but the Senate would be more useful in terms of being able to vote down bad nominees and, more importantly, even be able to protect SCOTUS in the event of an early/unexpected resignation (Republicans have cleared the way for it to happen so we don’t have to confirm a new nominee until after the next election)
Bredesen is well-liked down here. He was a popular Governor and manages to straddle Democratic/Republican divides. He has more than a fair shot to take the seat. Blackburn is a Trumpster hugger and Trump’s popularity is waning, likely get worse. Good news on the Nevada race and head-spinning report that Texas could actually be in play. The Arizona election last night was lost by a 5 pt margin in an area that the GOP carried by 20+ points in 2016. I read that was with a 31% turnout. Makes me feel almost positive. Don’t want to get too optimistic for fear of jinxing the outcome