Democrat Conor Lamb has a 6-point lead over Republican Rick Saccone on the eve of a key House special election, according to a new survey from Monmouth University.
Lamb has a 51 percent to 45 percent edge over Saccone in the poll from the reputable pollster. That’s his largest lead in any public survey since the race’s start – though it’s not far off from other recent polling released in the race ahead of Tuesday’s election, both public and private.
Republicans are bracing for a possible loss in the heavily populist-conservative district near Pittsburgh, which President Trump won by 20 points last election and where he stumped for Saccone on Saturday. A loss there would further GOP alarm about its 2018 prospects, especially after Republican groups spent more than $10 million trying to drag Saccone over the finish line.
The poll also found that Trump’s new steel tariffs aren’t doing much to help in the steel-heavy district, possibly partly because Lamb also supports them: Just 3 percent of likely voters said they moved to Saccone in recent days because of the tariffs. It’s the latest sign that major Republican arguments for the election are struggling to gain a toehold even in conservative districts.