Could Joe Kennedy Win The Race For Coakley?

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January 18, 2010 6:38 a.m.

Not much attention has been paid to Libertarian Joe Kennedy in the Massachusetts Senate race. But might he be the deciding factor in who wins the seat?

As Campaign Diaries points out, polls which include Kennedy (no relation to the late Ted Kennedy) make things look better for Democratic candidate Martha Coakley. Polls that only include Coakley and her Republican rival, Scott Brown, look better for Brown.According to TPMDC’s Poll Tracker, polls that include Kennedy average out to show the Libertarian with just 3.6% of the vote — and Coakley in the lead with 47.8%. Brown averages 44.2% of the vote.

The poll that has Kennedy with the highest portion, with 5%, shows Coakley with her biggest recent lead, at 8 points full points.

But when you look at the polls with only the two major candidates, Brown, on average, leads 52% to 42.5%.

Brown supporters seem to be concerned that Kennedy is Republicans’ Ralph Nader. As TPMDC reported this morning, a Massachusetts tea party group is urging Kennedy to drop out of the race and endorse Brown. (But a Kennedy spokesman says,” Joe feels it is important to finish what he has started.”)

There are, of course, a lot of factors in this race (including turnout) and as many ways to look at the numbers. But it’s one interesting take on what could happen tomorrow.

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