California: The End Of Primaries As We Know Them? (And One Crafty GOPer Feels Fine)

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It is now quite possible that the political landscape in California, the single largest state in the Union and home to about 12% of the country’s population, could undergo a transformation that would drastically change the ideological balance.

And it all comes down to political science. Like most other states, each party in California now holds its own primary to select a standard-bearer for the general election. (The parties are allowed to exclude registered independents.) Democrats always allow the indies in, while Republicans will often keep it closed. Left-wingers often win Dem primaries, and right-wingers win for the GOP.

But in exchange for his vote to pass the budget, moderate Republican state Senator Abel Maldonado demanded and received a provision setting a 2010 referendum to switch to something else called “Top Two,” used in Louisiana and Washington state. All candidates run on the same primary ballot, and the top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to a runoff.

So in deep-blue districts there would be two Democrats, and deep-red districts would produce two Republicans. The relatively moderate candidates would then have the edge in those districts, which Maldonado says is needed to improve the legislative process. (In an interesting twist, the office of governor is exempted.)

A previous referendum on this proposal was held in 2004, but it failed 46%-54%. The Dems didn’t even remotely want it this time — Maldonado forced it in exchange for his budget vote.

I spoke to Bob Mulholland, campaign advisor for the California Dems, and he laid out for me just how much he’s opposed to this: “Why are we spending a trillion dollars so the Iraqis can have multiple parties to choose from, and we ourselves in California say we’re gonna make a system where maybe there’ll be only one party to choose from.”

Mulholland accused Maldonado of doing this for his own ambitions — he was first elected in an open primary in 1998, attracting Hispanic voters, and could pull off the same trick statewide in a future run if the GOP were prevented from closing off a primary. “I always gotta remind people when you’re looking at reform,” Mulholland said, “don’t let a person’s political agenda or a candidates’ political agenda change the equation.”

Calls to Maldonado’s office were not returned.

So imagine a California with this system. They already have some moderates like Dianne Feinstein and Arnold Schwarzenegger, but most other pols are big-time partisans. The new California would produce a very different politics — and with 12% of Americans living in California, and an enormous economic footprint, that would make a huge impact on the rest of us.

Nate Silver has a fun name for it: “Land of a thousand Liebermans.”

So Maldonado has gotten his referendum, but he can count on a lot of resistance at the actual vote in 2010.

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