I wanted to flag this article for your attention. It’s written by an Austrian military analyst named Gustav Gressel. He’s one of the military analysts I’ve been following on Twitter. The argument is that Russia isn’t retrenching or narrowing its goals to seek a diplomatic settlement. Rather, it’s in an operational pause in which Russia is restocking men and materiel for a second offensive which will be modified and optimized based on what the Russians learned in their mostly failed original war plan. Based on this analysis Gressel says NATO/U.S. should be pouring more and more big ticket arms into Ukraine in advance of that next onslaught. I’m unable to independently analyze this argument and increasing the scale of arms transfers is a policy question more than an analytic one. But I want to put the argument in front of you because it does seem to square with what a number of these analysts and observers are saying.

Also, Kazakhstan seems to be saying more clearly it’s not taking Russia’s side over Ukraine.

TPM Reader RC thinks TS “fundamentally misunderstands what’s at stake and what it takes to win today.”

At the national and statewide levels, persuading perceived “center and center-right voters” is a waste of time at this point. The goal here is to keep the coalition together. The last two cycles have demonstrated that there is a 50+1 majority that can give Democrats political power. We need to be making sure that coalition shows up, not chasing a handful of “gettable voters”, most of whom are closet partisans.

From TPM Reader TS on pandemic-era restrictions on asylum-seekers…

The pandemic is not over and the limits on entrants should be extended at least through 2022.  The President should say no to advocates and legalistic experts pushing him to open the border to asylum claimers.  CNN will be filming droves of people crossing the Rio Grande every day. They are already starting.

I find myself agreeing with a lot of what TPM Reader PT says here about “Ukraine on the Verge of Defeat” …

As I mentioned, I’ve seen a fair number of different variations on the theme of “Vladimir V. Putin, SUPER-GENIUS” over the last few days; I’m sure you have as well. A thing they all seem to have in common is a presumption that Putin’s real goal in all of this was to acquire more territory in Ukraine’s east, or get a more firm grip on territory there that they already hold. I get the sense that they’re all taking a not-really-applicable analogy — making an opening bid in a negotiation that’s much bigger than what you actually expect to achieve — and applying it in a comically-inappropriate manner (specifically: ignoring the distinction that when you open with an overlarge ask it doesn’t actually cost anything to anyone, while Putin’s war in Ukraine has in fact cost Russia vastly more than if they’d just pursued additional conquest of territory in eastern Ukraine). 

From TPM Reader SS …

I want to follow-up on reader JJ’s thoughts. I’m aware of people like the “older Catholic guy” he describes. I’ve met some. But anytime we decide to label entire people groups with a stereotype that might be true for a subset, we are in danger. Any analysis that lacks nuance and complexity is often misguided.

I grew up in right-leaning evangelical subculture in the 1980’s in a highly conservative part of the country. My parents stood out in our circles as the token liberals. But they really were just people who left this area for a period and had lived both overseas and in California, and knew the world and the issues of the world were more complex.

From TPM Reader AE …

This may horrify you, but I am a pro-life leftie who has been a TPM-prime member for quite a while.  (I don’t remember exactly how long – I am sure that you have records.)  I thought your post “Traditionalism and Aggression” was horribly unfair.

I recognize of course that TPM is 100% pro-choice, and I still support you.

I’ve been fascinated by the evolving Madison Cawthorn “scandal.” As TPM Readers know as well as anyone, House Republicans say batsh*t insane stuff pretty much weekly. They not infrequently make statements in support of fringe racist and domestic terror groups. They endorse borderline sedition (light treason, if you will). These pass with as little trace as a brief summer shower. Yet here we have Cawthorn whipping out this weird Boogie Nights reverie about cocaine-filled orgies among his colleagues in Congress, a den of iniquity the brash young man-boy Cawthorn says he is striving to keep himself pure from. And yet this looks to be on the verge of making him a political dead man walking among congressional Republicans. Kevin McCarthy said yesterday that Cawthorn has “lost my trust” and that if he doesn’t shape up he could be stripped of his committee assignments or worse.

For years I’ve been corresponding with TPM Reader BF. He’s in the national security world, whereas I’m just an outside observer. He’s prone to intense responses to events whereas I’m characterologically more cautious. But this is his field not mine. So in recent days I was struck to see that he thinks I have the Ukraine situation totally wrong and that notwithstanding its battlefield embarrassments and mishaps Putin is on the verge of getting everything he wants and Ukraine is on the verge of what amounts to surrender.

From TPM Reader JJ …

Years ago I worked for a building trades union. I once had a car ride with a fellow staffer, an older Catholic guy who I’d once heard express opposition to abortion.   I thought I’d ask him about it.

I assumed I’d hear a version of the Catholic take on it. Instead, he was refreshingly honest–

“These c**ts have gotten out of control.”

I was offline for a few hours and I came back to the news that ex-President Trump is calling on Vladimir Putin to help him unearth dirt about Joe Biden. I had been thinking it was going to be important going forward to remind people that Trump has repeatedly worked with Vladimir Putin to intervene in U.S. domestic politics and subvert U.S. elections. After all, it seems like Putin is getting less popular in the United States of late. But I guess that won’t be as pressing a need as long as Trump continues to re-collude out in the open on an ongoing basis. So here we are.