I’m starting to think this latest bout of debt limit hostage taking will end with a filibuster carve out. On its face that seems highly improbable given the resistance through the year from Manchin and Sinema. And I think Manchin has said no way to this specifically. So it seems really improbable. But we’re down to very improbable outcomes and this is starting to seem like the least improbable one.

Let’s walk through the scenarios.

Over the last four to five days, we’ve seen a fascinating and occasionally surreal set of contending storylines for what happened on Capitol Hill with the President’s infrastructure, climate and safety net agenda. In advance we saw the continued portrayal of an intra-party fight between “progressives” and “moderates” when in fact we had something closer to unanimity with a tiny but critical number of holdouts. Really it was Manchin and Sinema vs everyone else.

Over the weekend, as Pelosi and Biden finally decided to toss aside the self-imposed deadline for passing the “hard” infrastructure bill, this prog. vs mod. storyline escalated into “Biden throwing in his lot with the left,” or a “left-wing revolt.” A weekend story in the Times actually claimed that in his meeting with House Democrats Biden had said for the “first time” that the two bills were linked. Apparently we all forget that just a couple months ago there was a whole faux mini-scandal when Biden threatened to veto the hard infrastructure bill if the two weren’t passed together. For a lot of the insider pubs it’s been a story of the collapse of Biden’s agenda whereas for most Democrats it seems more like it’s starting to get back on track.

This is all a testament to how a deeply entrenched set of assumptions can have wildly distorting effects on coverage of fairly nuts and bolts factual issues.

Let’s step back and see what I think actually happened here. Because it’s certainly not the collapse of Biden’s agenda. Nor is it the left wing triumph storyline that the elite publications and actually some progressives have each, for very different reasons, latched on to.

Austin Fire Department arson investigators and the FBI have arrested 30 year old Ryan Faircloth after an investigation into who threw a Molotov Cocktail into the Travis County Democratic Party headquarters early Wednesday morning. Security cameras showed a man alleged to be Faircloth first throwing a rock through the building’s front door, then returning with the Molotov Cocktail.

Damage was minimal. Patrons at a bar across the street saw the fire and quickly put it out. Security cameras were installed after a graffiti incident last year. Faircloth is charged with 2nd degree felony arson 3rd degree felony possession of a prohibited weapon.

I see myself as a friendly critic of The New York Times. It has all its shortcomings, which are many. But it also produces day in and day so much that, were it not to exist, we would be deeply impoverished as readers, as a country. Here though is an article which is so comically wrong in its basic understanding of events that I really do have to wonder what’s wrong with the publication’s DC bureau. Something there and really in the whole operation right up to the top is seriously wrong for this piece to have been published.

Let me republish the first three grafs …

So Joe Manchin says he doesn’t think there’s going to be a deal tonight.

That’s fine. I’d say it’s actually good. What we’re talking about here is a vast and historic legislative package. Scrambling to hash it together in the wee hours of night for no reason makes no sense. This deadline was always arbitrary.

The good news is that, based on Manchin’s comments, they seem now actually to be negotiating. That’s good. There’s no reason not to let it take a couple days to get it right. That’s completely okay.

As Kate Riga notes here, having blown through not just the deadline but the backup deadline, this puts a bit more slack into the system.

It’s worth stepping back and seeing what appears to have happened here.

There’s a fascinating peek into one aspect of the sausage production process in tonight’s Politico Influence, their newsletter about the lobbying world. The headline says it all: “Lobbyists’ frustration with BIF uncertainty spills out into the open.” The account is chock full of the heads of the big industry lobbies tossing WTFs at the House Progressive caucus. But the fascinating part is a bit more than that. They’re pissed at the Progressive Caucus. No mystery there. What’s clear – and this matches what I’ve been hearing nonstop – is that the big business and manufacturing lobbies want the BIF really, really bad. What also galls them though is that House Republicans won’t save it for them.

You’ve probably seen the news that Corey Lewandowski, the much-fired Trump soldier, was canned as the head of the MAGA Action Trump PAC. This came after he was accused of groping, harassing and stalking a Trump donor at an event in Las Vegas on Sunday night. Given Lewandowski’s reputation and rap sheet this is a highly, highly plausible accusation. But it also came simultaneously with charges from a pro-Trump publication a day before that Lewandowski was having an affair with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem. Was this latter claim – which comes from a conservative website and offers little if any corroboration – somehow intended to distract from the assault claim? Noem was also at the Sunday night dinner.

Yesterday a friend said maybe I was over-interpreting Joe Manchin’s comments from yesterday, the ones I mentioned below. I think he may be right. It’s entirely in character for Manchin to release a statement decrying Democrats tax and spend ways and inflation and tearing the country apart and turn around and finally make a deal. Indeed, he seems to have come back immediately from his scalding statement and said, “okay, so let’s get down to negotiating.” I feel like I failed my own test of never taking anything Joe Manchin says seriously until everything is actually totally, finally done. So who knows?

In any case, Kyrsten Sinema still seems like the biggest problem. And they’ve got 99 problems.

Sen. Manchin just put out a statement, scorching in its appraisal of the proposed reconciliation bill and making me think for the first time that this entire thing – both bills – may go down in flames. It’s a lot of the same stuff: debt, inflation, mean taxations, means-testing. But the volume is turned … well, up to 11. It’s not remotely the statement of someone who is on the verge of finding common ground with the rest of the caucus. I heard someone say a bit earlier that maybe killing his bill isn’t the way to get him to yes. But that’s not what’s happening. The rest of the party is begging him to say what he will support. They’re practically begging to get an agreement below $3.5 trillion. He and Kyrsten Sinema just won’t play ball.

Members of Congress have begun to say explicitly in the last couple days what I think has been clear for weeks and months. Kyrsten Sinema’s multiple trips to the White House yesterday just confirm it. She’s not negotiating about any of this in good faith. Joe Manchin is a huge obstacle for Democrats pushing their agenda. But the Manchin problem is still very different from the Sinema problem.