At first glance, it certainly looks like the retirement of Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) could set up a strong pick-up opportunity for the Republicans.
Gordon himself has been re-elected by overwhelming margins, but the district’s voting patterns have otherwise shown a decided swing to the Republicans. It was an approximate 49%-49% tie between George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2000, but then voted for Bush by 60%-40% in 2004, and for John McCain by 62%-37% in 2008.
“Well, I’m not gonna blow smoke on this. That district has trended Republican for years,” a Democratic source bluntly admitted, though he wasn’t giving up hope. “But having said that, there are still plenty of folks in that area, they’ve shown their independent-minded streak before.”
NRCC spokesman Ken Spain put out a triumphant statement: “It’s official: Democrats now have a retirement problem. After being forced to toe the line for Nancy Pelosi’s reckless agenda too many times, Blue Dog Democrats would rather roll over and retire than face the political headwind that is barreling toward them. This is evidence of the fact that the Obama-Pelosi agenda of government takeovers, permanent bailouts, and fewer jobs is taking a political and mental toll even on incumbent Democrats who were once-perceived to be firmly entrenched.”
According to our Dem source, potential Democratic candidates include: state Rep. Mike McDonald, who in the past has discussed his interest in running for the seat if and when Gordon retired; state Rep. Hank Fincher; former state Rep. John Hood; former state Sen. Andy Womack, who had briefly flirted with running for governor in 2002; and former state Rep. Jere Hargrove.
On the Republican side, state Sen. Jim Tracy is set to enter the race. A Republican source told us that current GOP candidates — veteran Dave Evans, bike-shop owner Kerry Roberts, and former Rutherford County GOP Chair Lou Ann Zelenik — would likely stay in the race, and others could possibly get in.
The GOP source compared this to the other open Democratic seat in Tennessee, where Rep. John Tanner is retiring and where Dems immediately recruited state Sen. Roy Herron, saying that there isn’t a truly strong Democratic candidate here. “Unlike TN-08 [the Tanner seat], you really don’t have much of a Democrat bench here anymore,” the source said.
