A new University of Minnesota poll of the state’s gubernatorial race finds Democratic former Sen. Mark Dayton taking a big lead over Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer — and more importantly, it also suggests that Dem voters are waking up to the election.
The numbers: Dayton 38%, Emmer 27%, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner with 16%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5.1% margin of error. In the previous University of Minnesota poll from a month ago, Dayton and Emmer were tied at 34%-34%, plus 13% for Horner.
The TPM Poll Average for this race gives Dayton 38.9%, Emmer 33.7%, and Horner 14.7%.
The pollster’s analysis finds that the enthusiasm gap facing Democrats has closed in this traditionally blue-leaning state, with the motivation of Dem voters now matching the Republicans:
“The big story in September is that the Democrats have woken up from their summer slumber,” said University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs, who oversaw the poll.
“When you go back to August, you find 57 percent of Democrats who are likely to vote saying that they had only a little or really no interest in voting come November,” Jacobs said. “Now we found a substantial 83 percent of Democrats saying they have a great deal or a fair amount of interest in this election.”
