It may come as no surprise to hear that, according to a newly released poll, Americans are overwhelmingly “dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time.” What may be a surprise is that the sheer number of dissatisfied Americans is at a near-historic low.
Gallup has released a new poll measuring current American “satisfaction.” According to the survey, just 21% of Americans answered affirmatively when asked, “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?” If that number holds for two weeks, it would be the lowest level of American satisfaction that Gallup has registered at the time of a midterm election in more than 30 years of tracking the question.
This historic low suggests serious trouble for the Democrats. As the pollster says, “In the four recent midterm elections in which satisfaction has been below 40% [’06, ’94, ’90, ’82], the president’s party has lost an average of 30 seats in the U.S. House. This includes losses of 30 seats in 2006 and 53 in 1994 when one party controlled both houses of Congress and the presidency.”
This year’s measurement of satisfaction is 14 percentage points lower than 2006 (35%) and nine points lower than 1994 (30%). In 2002, when Gallup saw 48% of respondents indicate they were satisfied with the country and 1998, when 60% of respondents expressed the same sentiment, the president’s party gained six and five seats, respectively.
The pollster notes that while these findings are a historic low for a midterm election year (and even “from a broader historical perspective”), if the numbers hold, it still “would not be the lowest Gallup has ever measured.” That low was registered in October 2008, when only 7% of Americans stated they were satisfied with the ways things were going in the country. Shortly following that low point, Barack Obama was elected president and the Democratic majority in Congress was expanded.
“Now, with satisfaction still lagging two years later,” the pollster concludes, “Obama and the Democrats face the possibility of losing much of the Congressional gains the party made the last two election cycles.”
The TPM Poll Average of the US Congressional Generic ballot finds Republicans leading the Democrats, 49.1%-40.4%.
