Last week, the New York Times/CBS News poll put an emphatic point on the acrimonious debt debate by producing a new record: the highest disapproval rating that Congress had ever received in the survey since it began in 1977.
The reasons are pretty obvious: not only did Congress, and specifically the House GOP play chicken with the US credit rating (and actually succeed in drawing a downgrade from one rating agency, S&P), the legislative branch took that chance with an economy still struggling to emerge from a deep recession with the added strife of three current military entanglements abroad. In other words, it was actually hard to make the situation much worse, but Congress did.
The sad distinction now is between the usually low approval ratings of Congress, and historically high disapproval ratings. And behind that distinction is a simple question: does it even matter when it comes to elections?
We’re reminded about Americans’ contempt for Congress all the time. There’s no shortage of data to back up the assertion. One passage from USA Today’s analysis of new Gallup data from Monday stuck out:
Only 24% of those surveyed say most members of Congress deserve re-election, the lowest percentage since Gallup began asking the question in 1991. Fifty-six percent say their own representative deserves another term, similar to the levels just before tumultuous elections in 1994, 2006 and 2010 that changed control of the House or Senate.
But despite the electoral consequences those numbers threaten, three quarters of Congress is almost certainly not going to be defeated in November 2012.
Previous elections have shown that it’s very likely over 90% of Congress will remain in office. And that’s because it’s not just about how a snapshot of Americans feel about the fractious debate at any given moment in Washington. The power of incumbency is real: the ability to maintain a media presence in local markets, higher name recognition, and the chance to endear yourself through community everts and constituent services. But by far the best advantage is the ability to fundraise with party backing, building up a war chest that effectively insulates members of Congress from challengers: why go after someone who already has $1.5 million in the bank before you’ve even made one call?
Congressional reelection rates are high, and always have been, even in wave years. They are also poor indicators of who actually made gains in Congress, if the rates taken are by themselves. The reelection rate for the House in 2006 was 94%, despite a swing of 31 seats and the Democrats taking the majority. Two years later there was again a 94% reelection rate, and the opposite result occurred: the Democrats expanded their majority from the previous cycle by 20 seats. The Senate is a bit different, that body has had reelection rates as high as 96% (2004) and low as 55% (1980). First, it’s a smaller sample size, as there are only 33 races in an election year, even before any retirements. Statewide races are also a different animal, and one could make a solid argument that they are much more affected by the national political picture.
Back in the days of civility, June 2006, Democrats had a mere 55% disapproval rating to the Republicans’ 60%, according to Gallup polling at the time (PDF). Then, a little over two years later, Americans turned their ire toward Congress again, as it registered a 75% disapproval to a 14% approval in July of 2008. But that fall, President Obama ushered in a wave that brought 252 Democratic house members with him.
Last year something notable happened: the reelection rate for the House slipped to 85%, the lowest since 1970. The House swung and the Tea Party-infused GOP majority established itself. The only common theme was that Congress had again hit a new low in the Gallup Congressional Approval index: 13% this time.
Gallup has tracked Congressional approval since 1974, and there actually have been some times where a plurality or majority approved of their job: a few short periods in the 80’s, another spot in the good economic times of the mid to late 90’s, and post September 11th to 2003. But in general, if a pollster asks a question about Congress, Americans are very likely to disapprove. If they ask a question about a specific party in Congress, Americans are less likely to disapprove, but not much less. And when it comes to elections, voters could very easily hate a Congress controlled by one party, love the presidential candidate from that party, and reelect that party en mass. Or they could hate Congress, and overwhelming vote to elect the other party, like in 2010. Congressional approval may be a factor in elections, but it’s no indicator.
The rub here is just how little it matters. Yes, it’s American politics, so of course anything can and does happen. But the fact that two completely different results can come from the same scenario is not just confounding, it’s counter-intuitive.
