Republicans could be in for a good night on Tuesday, with polls showing them favored to take both special elections for the House. In addition to the seeming upset in Anthony Weiner’s historically Democratic district, NY-09 in New York, a new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) also shows the Republican ahead in the reliably GOP NV-02 district in Nevada.
The numbers: Republican former state Sen. Mark Amodei 50%, Democratic state Treasurer Marshall 37%, American Independent Party candidate Timothy Fasano 4%, and independent Helmuth Lehmann 4%. The survey of likely voters was conducted from September 9 through 11, and has a ±3.9% margin of error.
A PPP survey three weeks ago showed a much closer race, with Amodei only edging Marshall by 43%-42%, plus three percent each for the minor-party candidates.
From the pollster’s analysis:
Marshall has not proven to be a strong candidate. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 50% with a negative one. But she’s also losing because of things out of her control. Barack Obama’s approval rating in the district is only 33% with 59% of voters unhappy with the job he’s doing. It would be very difficult for Democrats to win any open seat race where the President’s that unpopular.
To be clear, this is a historically Republican district, the reddest in the state. It voted for John McCain by less than a one point margin in the 2008 Democratic wave, but before that it voted 57%-41% for George W. Bush in 2004. And even Sharron Angle, the disastrous GOP Senate nominee in 2010 who blew a solid pick-up opportunity for the party against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, carried the district by a 50%-43% margin.
The seat was vacated this past spring, when GOP Rep. Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate to take the place of fellow Republican John Ensign, who resigned due to ethics issues and a likely expulsion stemming from his sex scandal involving a former aide’s wife. Heller was already running for the Senate seat, and polls have suggested that the race next year against Democratic Rep. Shelly Berkley could be competitive.
