Is he or isn’t he? That seems to have been the only question on cable news over the past few days, and has – of course – referred to a possible Presidential run by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
The right’s punditocracy is practically salivating at the thought of Christie making a last-minute entry, while those of a left-leaning bent seem to be quivering. On MSNBC Tuesday morning, Cory Booker, the Democratic Mayor of Newark, called Christie “the most competitive candidate against Barack Obama that’s out there.”
Christie’s appeal is clear. A blue state governor with a conservative record on issues such as education and taxation — as well as experience attracting independent voters, not to mention a reputation as a “winner” who gets his way — he seems like a formidable candidate.
But those touting Christie as the electable alternative to Perry and Romney may be overlooking a major red flag: his 2009 campaign for governor, which is also the only political campaign of the former U.S. Attorney’s career.
At first blush, things look good for Christie. According to CNN’s exit polling, he took 60% of the independent vote during the election.
But let’s look closer at the numbers. A day before the election, then-governor Jon Corzine polled at 53% unfavorable to 39% favorable, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.
According to the same poll, Christie was viewed favorably by only 41% of likely voters, as opposed to 40% unfavorable. Among independents, it was an even split, with 42% favorability and 42% unfavorability.
A PPP poll released on the same day found that only 40% of voters thought he’d made a strong case for why he should be elected. 27% of his own supporters thought he hadn’t made a case. PPP called these findings “symbolic of how unenthralled New Jersey voters were with their choices.”
In other words: Christie didn’t win the election by stoking the enthusiasm of independents. He won by facing a deeply unpopular incumbent. And he triumphed by a margin of only 48.5% to 44.9%, with 5.8% of the vote going to Chris Daggett, an independent.
True, Christie’s home-state approval has spiked in the wake of his handling of Hurricane Irene, after a precipitous decline over the course of 2011. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll out Tuesday shows Christie’s New Jersey favorability ratings at 49%, compared to 41% unfavorable. In May, it was 40% favorable to 45% unfavorable. Among independents, it’s now 51% favorable to 31% unfavorable, up from a 37% to 37% split in May.
All good for Christie… Yet it doesn’t change the fact that he hasn’t exactly proven himself as a campaigner who can defeat a popular opponent.
Good thing, then — for him at least — that his potential opponents, from Mitt Romney to Rick Perry to Barack Obama, aren’t necessarily all that popular either.
