The calls for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to exit the Republican race for president got more serious on Wednesday, the day after he lost two states in the deep South to former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. When the Mississippi and Alabama primaries went to the former senator, it struck a major blow to the idea that Gingrich could continue on a “southern strategy,” since he didn’t take two of the most southern states after his Georgia win.
The story all along has been about the battle between the Republican frontrunner in former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and the various other candidates that have posed a challenge by galvanizing conservatives. Now Santorum and Gingrich are fighting with each other for that voting bloc, splitting a possible coalition that could overtake Romney, with the next major test in Tuesday’s Illinois primary.
So if Newt quits, does Rick benefit?
First, it’s not as simple as transferring a vote for Gingrich into a vote for Santorum. Sure, the two camps share a common goal in theory — defying the establishment nominee in favor of what they perceive to be a more true conservative. But there are a number of factors in actually determining where Newt supporters would go, according to Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. Not only are they not guaranteed for Santorum, those voters could stay home, upset that their candidate is not longer in running.
“The campaign may be different today if that had happened,” Miringoff told TPM about what the contest would look like if Newt had moved on before the late February primaries even Super Tuesday. “There’s no doubt that this is playing a role in the chemistry of the race. But you can’t just take the Gingrich supporters and tack them on Santorum.”
Yet the numbers show that Santorum would indead be the biggest beneficiary of Newt dropping out, especially in what Illinois is shaping up to be — a major flashpoint in the race like Michigan and Ohio, where Romney needs to prove his fronturnner status with a strong win as the media builds pressure on expectations of a positive result. Like the other “must-win” midwestern states before, Romney will continue to cast doubt on his frontrunning status if he can’t get a big win.
Less than ten days before the Michigan primary, Public Policy Polling (D) released data on the contest and the second choice of Republican voters. Newt was set to take 10 percent of the total, while Santorum and Romney were fighting it out for the top spot. When asked who Newt supporters would jump to if he left the race, it wasn’t close — 77 percent said they’d go to Santorum, 15 for Romney and 8 for Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX).
Numbers from Marist College before the Ohio primary were much less stark, but showed the same trend. Before the Super Tuesday vote, Newt was ready to get 15 percent. Forty percent of Gingrich supporters said Santorum would be their second choice. Thirty-two percent said the same about Romney, and 22 would have jumped to Paul. Romney ended up winning by eight tenths of a point.
“It varies from state to state, but I think Newt dropping out would be worth about five points to Santorum, so yes I definitely think Santorum would have won Michigan and Ohio had Gingrich dropped out by then,” PPP Pollster Tom Jensen told TPM in an email. “Newt Gingrich has become Mitt Romney’s best friend. His presence in the race at this point serves no purpose but to help Romney.”
Polling has been light in Illinois, but a recent survey from the Chicago Tribune showed Romney with a four point lead, 35 percent to 31 over Santorum. Gingrich got 12 percent and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) saw seven. So there are signs that the state is shaping up like the other midwestern Republican primaries — a slugfest in the mid-thirties to low-forties between Romney and Santorum, with Gingrich commanding just enough to possibly give the race to Mitt.
Asked by TPM if Newt could make Illinois another Michigan or Ohio, Jensen was clear. “Absolutely,” he wrote. “If Gingrich can get around 15% it will significantly hamper Santorum’s ability to win the state — if Gingrich wasn’t in Santorum would get about 10% of that 15%.”
