With the Iowa caucus a week from tomorrow, the thing that jumps out to me now is how much the race, at this stage, looks pretty much like we expected it to all along.

Romney is not looking very good in Iowa, where a more conservative/fringe candidate could very well beat him. He’s running strong in New Hampshire, where he has long been favored in part because he owns a home there and has high name recognition as the former governor of Massachusetts where the Boston media market saturates much of New Hampshire. That leaves a lot riding on the outcome in South Carolina.

That’s the basic dynamic of the race that we expected all along. The big difference is who the main alternatives to Mitt now are: Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. Read More