In another sign the presidential race is tightening, Donald Trump now holds a lead among likely voters, in both a head-to-head match up with Hillary Clinton and in a four-way race with third party candidates, according to the new CNN/ORC national poll.
Trump leads Clinton by one point, 49-48, among likely voters in a head-to-head matchup. When third party candidates are added to the question Trump leads Clinton by two points, 45-43, among likely voters, with Johnson at 7 points and Stein at 2 points.
This was the first CNN/ORC poll of the general election to filter for likely voters. Clinton had consistently lead in the previous CNN/ORC polls of registered voters, except for a poll immediately following the Republican convention when Trump saw a bounce.
In the broader pool of registered voters, Clinton still leads, though more narrowly than before, according to the poll. In a head-to-head matchup among registered voters, Clinton leads Trump by two points, 48-46, down from her 52-43 lead over Trump in the CNN/ORC poll released in early August. When third party candidates are added to the question, Clinton leads Trump by three points, 44-41, among registered voters, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 9 points and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3 points.
ORC International conducted the survey via phone Sept. 1-4. It surveyed 886 registered voters with a margin of error plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, and surveyed 786 likely voters with a margin or error plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Clarification: This post has been updated to highlight the survey results among likely voters.
