Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) has a small lead in the Louisiana Senate jungle primary, but will likely lose to Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) in a December runoff, according to a Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Monday.
Among likely voters, 36 percent supported Landrieu, 35 percent supported Cassidy and 11 percent supported Tea Party candidate Rob Maness. Yet in a match-up between just Landrieu and Cassidy, Cassidy had a 7 point lead over Landrieu, though 11 percent of voters say they’re undecided in a head-to-head contest.
The Suffolk survey confirms previous polling, which shows Landrieu winning the primary, but failing to win the 50 percent necessary to avoid a runoff.
According to TPM’s Polltracker average, Landrieu leads Cassidy by 3.7 points in a jungle primary.
And Cassidy leads Landrieu by three points in a runoff election.
Suffolk surveyed 500 likely voters Oct. 23-26 with a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Suffolk polls usually suck and this one appears to be no different. Once again they can’t find an accurate representation of the state demographics. I’m no expert but…
Out of 500 likely voters only 11 of the 500 represent the 18-25 vote. Now I know that they do not vote in as large numbers as presidential elections but 2 percent when they certainly make up a larger percentage, at least to me, seems very low.
They found four American Indians in Louisiana to poll (Census percentage 0.8) and ONLY 7 Hispanic/Latinos to poll (Census percentage of state 4.7).
And the No party/Ind Group seems to skew very heavily republican. This group does not appear to be distributed as other state independents. JMHO.
http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_27_2014_tables.pdf
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/22000.html