President Obama may be struggling against an obstructionist minority. And many see him as ineffectual because of that. But there’s another center-left leader facing an obstructionist and factionalized right. And for him it seems to be working out really well. Let’s take a trip to the other side of the world, at the current story of Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.
Rudd’s Labor Party (a rough counterpart to our Democrats) was trying to hammer out a deal on cap-and-trade with Malcolm Turnbull, the leader of the opposition Liberal Party (the Aussie equivalent of the Republicans, and historically the dominant party). Nobody holds a majority in the upper house, so Rudd had to build some kind of consensus.
But in the last few weeks, Turnbull was facing a revolt from his right-wingers — which the Inhofe-style right finally won in the last few days.
A Liberal caucus leadership vote this week defeated Turnbull by a margin of exactly one vote, thus tossing him out as opposition leader. In his place now is the ultra-conservative Tony Abbott, who has described climate change arguments as “absolute crap,” though he’s now trying to soften that position by promising to address climate change without any actual carbon limits or taxes.
What it all amounts to is that Turnbull got Scozzafavaed — punished for being a moderate conservative trying to work constructively with a progressive government — and replaced by a hard-line ideologue. But instead of being an obscure backbencher, he was the leader of the opposition party.
(The right-wing Liberal coup was spear-headed by such colorful personalities as Wilson “Iron Bar” Tuckey — nicknamed for the weapon he reportedly used to assault an aboriginal man in 1967 — and Nick Minchin, who made the Inhofe-like pronouncement: “For the extreme left, it provides the opportunity to do what they have always wanted to do, which is to sort of de-industrialise the Western world. The collapse of communism was a disaster for the left and, really, they embraced environment as their new religion.”)
After the Liberals and minor parties defeated the climate bill in the Senate, Rudd can constitutionally hold a new election, which could happen any time between this spring and the fall. And he’d probably win it overwhelmingly. Rudd could do it immediately if he wanted. But instead he’s going to give one last go-around with the Liberals in the Senate in the next few months.
Meanwhile, Turnbull (the ousted Liberal leader) has adopted the Dede-like behavior of openly denouncing Abbott and the Liberal Party for denying the urgency of climate change as an issue, and for breaking deals the party made with the government.
Before this whole mess happened, Labor was already ahead of the Liberals by about ten points in all the polls, and it’s hard to imagine how open in-fighting among the right can help them. As it stands now, the country could be on the verge of an interesting political test for our time: A historically conservative country holding an election that is effectively a referendum on the environment — and the left coming out on top.
