Today On The Trail: January 25, 2012

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Expect State of the Union reactions, a Univision Forum, and Newt Gingrich’s second Freddie Mac contract. Here are ten things you need to know.

  • Poll shows Romney with slight lead in Florida: A new Quinnipiac Florida poll released Wednesday morning shows Mitt Romney with a small lead of 36% to Gingrich’s 34%. However, among those interviewed right after the South Carolina primary, Gingrich leads 40% to 34%. The TPM Poll Average has Romney down 5 points to Gingrich.
  • Obama uses State of the Union to refute Romney: On several points, Obama’s speech was aimed at the rebutting Mitt Romney — and none more specifically than when he suggested that the rich paying higher taxes was not about “envy,” as Romney has suggested, but fairness.
  • Gingrich releases second Freddie Mac contract: After taking fire for only releasing one of his contracts with Freddie Mac, the consulting firm Newt founded released the contract, which says explicitly that Gingrich was not working as a lobbyist: “Nothing herein is or shall be construed as an agreement to provide lobbying services of any kind or engage in lobbying activities.” http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71930.html
  • Romney campaign will attack Gingrich on earmarks: The Romney campaign is opening up yet another line of attack on Newt Gingrich Wednesday: earmarks. Romney surrogate Sen. John McCain will hold a conference call to discuss “Gingrich’s Troubling Record On Earmarks.”
  • Restore Our Future prepares ad buys in 3 more states: Having already spent millions in Florida, pro-Mitt Romney super PAC Restore Our Future is
  • “>planning ad campaigns in three more states: Michigan, Nevada and Arizona. All three are key states general election states with up primary contests.
  • Romney campaigns across Florida with events for key constituencies: Romney is hitting all the necessary notes in Florida. On Wednesday, he will start by attacking President Obama with a rebuttal to his State of the Union. Next Romney will participate in the Univision “Meet the Candidates” Forum at 2:15pm. The rest of the week, he will participate in a second outreach event for the Latino community, hold a third session on the housing crisis, and speak at an event for the US-Cuba Democracy PAC. He will even hold an event on the Space Coast, covering all his electoral bases of support.
  • Gingrich doubles down on speech on space program: Newt Gingrich will spend Wednesday reaching out to Latino voters at the Univision forum from 9-9:30 a.m. and a Latin American policy speech at 10 a.m. Newt will then head to to a Space Coast roundtable and downhill.
  • Candidates participate in Univision forum: Today, Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum will participate in a “Meet the Candidates” forum hosted by Univision and the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. They will be interviewed separately throughout the day; Gingrich at 9 a.m., Santorum at 1 p.m., and Romney at 2:15 p.m. 11% of Republican voters in Florida are Latino.
  • Democrats are up by 11 points on generic Congressional ballot: A new National Journal poll gives Democrats their first double digit lead on the generic congressional ballot test — a poll of which party voters prefer to control Congress. Democrats are the choice of 48 percent, while Republicans get 37 percent of voters. Just a few weeks ago, this lead was substantially smaller. Historically, this puts Democrats in a very good position heading into an election year as both Democrats and Republicans speculate that the House could go blue in November. The TPM Poll Average only has Democrats up by 1 percentage point.
  • Jesse Kelly to run for Gifford’s seat in special election: Jesse Kelly, the man who lost to Rep. Gabrielle Giffords by two points in 2010, is preparing to run for her seat in a special election now that Giffords is stepping down. Last time around, Kelly suggested that his opponents were busing Mexicans across the border to vote illegally in Arizona.
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