Inevitable, he was not. But will losing the first place position actually boost Mitt Romney?
When Texas Gov. Rick Perry grabbed the spotlight and the lead in the GOP presidential race, the former Mass. Gov. definitely took a step back. He had long held a lead in the 2011 national polls. Then Perry, the viable candidate hard right conservatives had been looking for all along, displaced Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) as Tea Party favorite and, this being the Republican primary, took those votes to build a lead. Then voters of all kinds got to know Perry more fully, and he went ahead and touched the third rail of American politics.
Now, as you may or may not have noticed, Mitt Romney has likely made this a two person race.
When you think about it, there really has been an advantage to being a candidate for President since 2007. Sure, it’s given Romney a sort of bland veneer and the media has all the time in the world to call out the twists in his political stances (and there has certainly been a lot to twist), but he’s remained through it all. He’s been through the rise of Sarah Palin as a national figure, Donald Trump as an actual presidential candidate, and Bachmann as a conservative leader. But Mitt Romney is still here, still maintaining a solid level of support, still very much a top contender to be the GOP standard-bearer.
Here are three major drivers of Romney’s improved position in the polls in the last week or so.
1. Romney as the Social Security champion: Rick Perry called the popular program a “ponzi sceme” and wrote in his book that it should be replaced with a system administered by the states. Romney has seized the issue, because as TPM reported last week, it’s a dual win for him: he gets to hammer Perry on it within the GOP primary (where changes to it are unpopular) and sets himself up as a Social Security defender in for general election (where changes are REALLY unpopular).
Yes, this hurts Perry, but Romney doesn’t just benefit from it by helping in the nomination fight, it could help him draw independent voters. At the very least, he won’t have to do the twisting and turning Perry may have to do should he get the nomination. If turns out to be Perry, President Obama just may bring up the Texas Gov’s misgivings on Social Security a few times during 2012. A few hundred times.
2. South Carolina looking more like a fight: We’re a long ways away from the first caucuses/primaries. But Perry had been running away with South Carolina. Public Policy Polling (D) had him up by 20 points in the conservative and southern state. A Republican firm, Magellen Strategies, had him up by 11. But on Monday, Winthrop University came out with a poll that showed a break from the Perry trend in the state: Perry and Romney in a statistical dead heat. The survey was conducted from September 11th to the 18th, mostly after the CNN/Tea Party Express debate in which Perry took a ton of criticism for his Social Security stance.
All signs still point to Perry doing very well there, but if Perry has to fight for South Carolina, he’ll likely have to fight for every primary state.
3. Florida could be crucial, and Romney’s preforming better there: TPM reported Wednesday on a poll of Florida that found two things — Romney and Perry exactly even at 25 percent a piece in the primary, and Romney as the only candidate that could beat Obama if the election were today. Perry, for his part, was relegated to a sort of second tier status in matchups against the President: the poll tested nearly all the GOP candidates, and Perry only did slightly better than the likes of Bachmann, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and businessman Herman Cain, candidates who haven’t proven they have a real shot.
Perry was bested by eight points against Obama, and it’s not hard to see that if a presidential candidate shows a willingness to mess with Social Security, it will probably hurt them in Florida. It’s also a state that is looking to move up in the primary process, possibly giving it more importance and greater weight if Romney can win based on his support of the program.
One final note for thorough debate watchers: it’s not particularly quantifiable, but Perry’s not had great debate performances in his last two outings. With so many on the schedule and GOP voters getting to know him better, now’s not the time to get crushed by Romney, who’s turned in good performances and seems comfortable in an attacking position on Social Security and has general credibility with GOP voters on the economy.
