Ohio is not an early state in the GOP Presidential primary process, but being an essential swing state in the general, it’s probably a good idea for a candidate to have their base behind them there. Unfortunately for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the GOP frontrunner just a month ago, he’s not firing up many Republican voters in the Buckeye State. In an new Public Policy Polling (D) survey of Ohio, Perry is polling ahead of just former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, two candidates who have never really been in serious contention for the nomination.
The leader in the Ohio Republican primary is the GOP’s latest man of the moment: businessman Herman Cain, well ahead of the field and outside the margin of error at 34 percent, with former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney second at 19 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich rounds out the candidates with double digits in the poll at 14 percent.
The major, major problem for Perry within the primary is favorability. Perry is actually underwater within his own party, at 40 percent favorable versus 42 unfavorable, while the two men at the top are well liked. Cain is especially popular, as 68 percent of Ohio Republicans have a positive view of him versus 13 who have a negative one. Romney is in positive territory by twenty points.
Within those who say they are supporters of the Tea Party movement, the numbers are quite similar: Perry’s favorability is split while Cain sees sky high marks. This is a tremendous change from the early days of Perry’s candidacy, when he commanded the very conservative base of the Republican Party. It seems that weeks of sustained attacks Perry’s conservative credentials — through his support of an HPV vaccine mandate and relatively more balanced approach (at least within the GOP base) to immigration — have really make a dent.
To illustrate how far Perry has fallen and how much Cain has surged, the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza now doubles Perry’s total in a head-to-head matchup in the primary 58 – 24. Cain also beats Romney, but by a little less, 50 – 36.
Perry has never been as low as he is in Ohio, where he has fallen to sixth at 5%, not far above perennial cellar-dwellers Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum (1% each) and Gary Johnson (essentially zero). Cain has 34% to Romney’s 19%, Gingrich’s 14%, Ron Paul’s 7%, and Michele Bachmann’s 6%. This is a drastic change from when PPP last took a look at the contest in August–then, taken the same weekend as his official announcement, Perry led with 21% to Romney’s 20%, Bachmann’s 14%, Cain’s 10%, and Gingrich’s and Paul’s 8%. Perry is down 16 points and Bachmann eight, with Cain up 24 and Gingrich six.
The Ohio poll used 500 automated telephone interviews with registered Republicans conducted from October 13th to the 16th. It has a sampling error of 4.4 percent.
