TPM 2012

Poll: Walker Leads Barrett By 6 Points In Wisconsin Recall

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Newscom

From the pollster's analysis:

Republicans are more likely to say they are "absolutely certain" to vote on June 5, at 91 percent, than are Democrats and independents, both at 83 percent. In other areas of participation, Republicans also have an advantage. Sixty-two percent of Republicans say that they have tried to persuade someone to vote for or against a candidate, compared to 54 percent among Democrats and 48 percent among independents. Democrats, however, are more likely to have been contacted by a campaign, 83 percent, to 78 percent for Republicans and 76 percent among independents. These rates are for all registered voters in the sample, not just likely voters.

Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin noted, "While both parties show unusual levels of involvement in the campaign, Republicans appear to hold an advantage in likely turnout, although Democrats are more likely to have been contacted by a campaign. In a close election with so few undecided voters, enthusiasm, turnout and campaign contact with voters may make the difference."

The TPM Poll Average gives Walker 50.5, to Barrett's 44.2:

In addition, Walker's approval rating is 50 percent, to a disapproval rating of 46 percent, up from his underwater showing of 47-51 two weeks ago. The TPM Poll Average for Walker's approval currently puts him at 48.6-47.1:

By contrast, Barrett's personal favorable rating is only 37 percent, to an unfavorable rating of 45 percent, and a higher undecided rating of 13 percent. In the Marquette poll from two weeks ago, Barrett's favorable rating was at 37-39. The TPM Poll Average for Barrett's favorable rating is 42.3-46.5: