The new survey of the Virginia Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D), a race that is practically already in general election mode, gives Democrat Tim Kaine a five-point lead.
The numbers: Former Gov. and ex-DNC chair Tim Kaine, 47%, and Republican former Senator (and also ex-Gov.) George Allen 42%. The survey of registered voters has a ±4% margin of error.
In the previous poll from late July, Kaine had a narrow lead of 46%-43%.
Key takeaway from the pollster’s analysis:
Part of the reason for the state’s blue trending in the last decade is that it has seen an influx of settlers from other parts of the country, particularly in the D.C. suburbs. 34% of the state’s voters do not consider themselves Southern, and with those non-natives, Kaine has an enormous 61-29 lead over Allen. Allen is saved by posting a 47-41 edge with the two-thirds who do consider themselves part of the region. Both candidates grew up outside the state, but Allen has adopted the Southern heritage to fit in with the state’s largely white, rural Republican Party.
The two candidates already met for a debate last week. And even though the general election is 11 months away, the two jousted as if it might have only been one month away, on a variety of topics: Jobs, the federal debt, health care — and the “macaca” event that led to Allen’s defeat for re-election 2006, when he called a Webb campaign video tracker, who was from an Indian-American background, by an apparent obscure racial slur.
