Friday saw the release of polling data that seems to show that likely Republican Iowa caucus-goers may (finally) be coming to the realization that has been clear for a long time: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is probably the best GOP option to take on President Obama, and therefore the best option on Tuesday. But it didn’t come easy.
As the candidates blanket the state and the media is in full Iowa mode, some are still moving up in the polling data being released daily. The latest is former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who moved to second in a new survey from Illinois pollster We Ask America, a huge jump from the single digits that Santorum had been relegated to in Iowa for the entire campaign season. To be sure, the former Pennsylvania Senator has been making a move lately, scoring in the mid teens in public polls over the last week.
Santorum did well in new NBC/Marist numbers, which showed him with 15 percent. But the real story in the data is that Romney is finally solidifying support (albeit a small plurality) just as votes approach. The NBC/Marist poll showed that few Iowa GOP voters consider Romney to be the “true conservative” in the field. But 50 percent of the primary electorate consider him to be an “acceptable” nominee, and 27 percent say he’d be acceptable with reservations.
There are other candidates with similar numbers on “acceptability.” But Romney seems to be combining relative popularity among the small group of Republican moderates with a partial sale on ectability to the biggest conservative demo, resulting in a lead in both the GOP horse race and in the second choice numbers.
We Ask America, which also found Romney to be in front, broke it down this way:
While many in the media seem to be focusing on the move up the food chain by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum and the falling numbers for the last flavor-of-the-day Ron Paul, Romney seems finally to be breaking through as Iowa Republicans get closer to Caucus Day. Perhaps more important is the fact that 39 percent of all poll participants believe that Romney will ultimately be the flag carrier for the GOP in the fall.
In other words, even if Republicans in Iowa are still trying out candidates, there’s data which shows many GOPers know that once the primary process starts, Romney’s Mr. Inevitable strategy has a good chance of actually paying off.
