National Democrats are touting a poll in solid-red Utah, claiming that six-term Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch could be in for a close race against a potential opponent, Democratic Congressman Jim Matheson.
The poll, conducted by Dem pollster Anzalone Liszt Research for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, gives Hatch 48% support, putting the incumbent under the key 50% threshold, to 42% for Matheson. The DSCC also says: “After voters hear a balanced amount of information about each candidate, the race narrows to just 2 points (46% Hatch, 44% Matheson).”
The poll also gives Hatch a personal favorable rating of 57%, with a job approval of 62%. Matheson’s ratings are slightly higher, with a 64% favorable rating, and 66% job approval.
To be clear, Matheson is not in the race at this time, but the Dems have hoped to recruit him.
When asked for comment by TPM, NRSC communications director Brian Walsh shot back: “It’s almost embarrassing that national Democrats would release a poll showing that even after multiple push questions were asked, they are still down six points. Not surprisingly, this poll was conducted by the same Democrat pollster who breathlessly claimed that Democrats were ultra-competitive in Louisiana last year, shortly before their Senate candidate went on to lose by almost 20 points. This is a PR stunt, and nothing more.”
Utah is a solidly Republican state, which has not elected a Democratic senator since the 1970 re-election of Sen. Ted Moss (who was originally elected to his first term in 1958, thanks to a split Republican vote in a three-way race). Furthermore, 2012 will be a presidential election year, and the state has not voted Democratic for president since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964. In 2008, it voted for John McCain by 63%-34%.
On the other hand, Matheson has been able throughout his career to win convincingly, bucking the overall average for his party. This past July, a survey from Public Policy Polling (D) actually gave Matheson a one-point edge over the incumbent Hatch. Before that, a mid-June survey from Utah pollster Dan Jones for the 2012 gubernatorial race showed Matheson only narrowly trailing incumbent GOP Gov. Gary Herbert, by a 48%-45% margin. And Matheson has been getting elected since 2000 in a Republican-leaning district that voted 58%-40% for John McCain in 2008, and before that voted for George W. Bush by 66%-31% in 2004.
