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Good Luck With That, SCOTUS!

Tierney Sneed does a nice job here piecing together what the Supreme Court tried to do yesterday on the Obamacare contraceptive mandate and why it's really hard to see how it's going to work out like the court wants it to.

Why the Poll Tightening?

National horse race numbers are easy to over-interpret this early in the cycle. A few polls shouldn't affect our sense of the race too much. But there's no question that there's been a small but significant tightening of the Clinton v Trump polls over the last week or so. So why is that?

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For a lot of readers, the freakout over transgender bathroom usage has settled into a low level background noise. But the deep and breadth of the freakout has reached whole new levels since the U.S. Department of Education sent out a letter giving guidance to local schools on how to accommodate trans students.

Now instead of a diffuse set of targets -- the Charlotte City Council, the Fort Worth school superintendent, etc -- the anti-LGBT forces have a familiar and comfortable villain: OBAMA!

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Some Confirmation: Trump is NOT Expanding the GOP

I've been writing for months now that it's simply not true that Donald Trump is bringing millions of new people or really any new people into the GOP. The people who are voting for Trump aren't new to voting and they're not even new to the GOP. What they are new to is voting in the primaries as opposed to just reliably voting for whoever the GOP puts up in November.

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Marco Rubio Has The Jokes?

For the last six years I've been the odd man out when it comes to appreciating the innate political skills of Marco Rubio. Just didn't see it. I tried. It was actually a little frustrating. Why couldn't I see what so many colleagues took as a given? So I'm a bit relieved that I find the post-politics Rubio genuinely funny. There was his joke last week with our Lauren Fox, and then last night's hilarious Twitter rant. Don't ruin this for me by telling me he's not really that funny. I need this.

Site Update

A number of readers wrote in over the weekend saying they had tried to sign up for Prime but were unable to. We also heard from others who weren't able to sign into the site. Those issues should both be fixed now. So buy all means sign up for Prime and sign in to the site. Here's the story. We rolled out a major retooling of the site architecture over the course of last week. That introduced a few glitches that we were able to get fixed over the weekend or by the end of yesterday. A lot of you should see a faster site, especially on the front page. If you've continued to have any of these problems please let us know. Otherwise, definitely sign up for Prime! And of course sign in.

Big Bidness

TPM Reader RC takes a disturbing and revealing look at the coming economic boom in the expulsion/interment camp industry when Trump's mass expulsion gets underway. My only quibble is that since Trump says he'll deport 11 million people in 18 months, it would be a shortlived industry. But estimates put the price tag at half a trillion dollars. So it would be a true bonanza for the contractors ...

I've been wondering the same thing, but since I'm a planner and an architect, I've been wondering about it more on a physical and infrastructural level than about who supports it.

Ultimately, I think Trumps' mass deportation will be credited with a sort of economic boom, at least for some sectors, in an even larger way than a massive infrastructure program might. Since I haven't seen others analyzing what the program would actually entail, I decided to do some rough calculations based on land use, detention center size, and logistics to come up with one idea of how the camps might work. In my view, the mass expulsion industry will supplement prison privatization, and will likely become some of the most lucrative (and--by nature of their newness, their variation by state, and their immediate implementation--the most corrupt) government contracts available.

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Parsing the "Endorsement" Nonsense

Freshman Senator Ron Johnson looks to be one of the most vulnerable and, by most accounts, dumbest senators up for reelection this year. I caught wind of some Republican lobbyist/donors basically washing their hands of him a few months ago after hearing his plan to run hard on the SCOTUS blockade in his battle for reelection. It's debatable how much harm the blockade will do Republicans in November (I think a fair amount); but no one who's not an imbecile thinks it's going to be a help in a blue or purple state election.

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I Want to Know More About Mass Expulsion

I mentioned last week that Donald Trump's pledge to deport all undocumented immigrants in the country - 11 million people or about 3% of the population - in 18 months has largely dropped out of the national news narrative even though we still hear about the Muslim ban and the border wall almost every day. That doesn't mean no one is talking about it, of course. I know people are. But I'm talking about the elite news media narrative, what's getting asked and discussed and so forth.

I want to find out more about where Members of Congress, Governors and major candidates for those offices stand on this issue. As I wrote last week, in immediate terms, it's the most consequential of Trump's major policy proposals in terms of human suffering, economic consequences, constitutional violations. So where do people stand? If you see press references to anyone in the group noted above getting asked about this question, answering in support or opposition, please drop us a line at our main comments address which is linked just below the TPM logo at the top of the page.