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What that means is that President Obama has actually gained a bit of ground (obviously within the margin of error) on last week's eye-popping poll showing him with a 7 point lead over Mitt Romney. But it also shows that turnout and propensity to vote are going to be the whole game going into November.

Likely voter screens almost always provide some GOP edge. But 7 points is an extremely large one for a presidential contest.

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Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.