(click the TPM icon for full sized graph and data)
Here’s the very latest average and trend on the congressional generic ballot. As you can see, the Republican advantage has been blunted a bit in the last few days. But it’s important to remember that there’s some level of bouncing back and forth we’ll see from now through election day.
Two nuggets of information that are interesting to note. A number of polls have come out in the last 36 hours, most of which look measurably better for the Dems than recent soundings have. The GWU poll shows the two sides tied. PPP shows a 1 point Dem advantage. CBS/NYT shows a 2 point GOP advantage.
Most notable though is AP/GfK. If you look at our data chart, they show an eye-popping 10 point spread for the Republicans. That’s for ‘likely voters’. But they also released their numbers for ‘registered voters’. And that number is tied at 47. It gives you a clear sense of how much of a factor uneven levels of voter enthusiasm is playing in the build up to this race.
[ed.note: Get the very latest poll data of every congressional and gubernatorial race in the country at TPMPolltracker. The latest numbers, race averages, interactive graphs and more.]