So here we are, not much left but the counting. We’ll be hosting election results on the front page of the site. But you can bookmark this page too, where you can find all the results for Congress, governors and major state propositions and referenda. If you want a list of people who are highly knowledgeable and try to make sense of the numbers in real time, here’s my Twitter list of smart election data people.
Below is a list of races to watch in the early evening to get a sense of where things are going.
This will be a long night even if the overall results are fairly clear early on. Polls don’t close in California until 11 PM eastern. But here’s a list of races that we’ll see results for fairly early and which are good indicators of how the overall night will shake out. To be clear, this is not a list I’ve compiled using some strict set of metrics. Nor are they the seats most likely to flip in a Democratic direction. Indeed, I haven’t even included the ten or twenty most likely to flip. These are races which are true toss ups or actually reach seats for the Democrats. If you see a lot of these in the Democratic column, you’re probably looking at a genuine wave election. If it’s the reverse that probably means the Democrats are going to need to hustle out seats across the country to get to a majority.
I’ll organize these by closing time with all times eastern time.
6 PM
KY-6: Barr (R) v McGrath (D) (*)
7 PM
FL-18: Mast v Baer
FL-25: Diaz-Balart v Barzee Flores
FL-26: Curbelo v Mucarsel-Powell
VA-2: Taylor v Luria
VA-5: Riggleman v Cockburn
VA-7: Bratt v Spanberger (*)
7:30 PM
OH-12: Balderson v O’Connor (*)
WV-3: Miller v Ojeda
NC-2: Holding v Coleman
NC-9: Harris v McCreedy
NC-13: Budd v Manning
8 PM
GA-6: Handel v McBath (*)
ME-2: Poliquin v Golden (*)
NJ-3: MacArthur v Kim (*)
NJ-7: Lance v Malinowski
PA-1: Fitzpatrick v Wallace
PA-10: Perry v Scott
PA-16: Kelly v DiNciola
You’ll see I’ve placed asterisks by a few races. These are races that seem either very bellweathery to me or ones where the incumbent is particularly odious. A number, like Virginia 7, are both. New York has a lot of key House races. But polls close in New York at 9 PM. So a lot of other states in the midwest are also closing then.
You can see 538’s projections for all these races here and The Cook Report’s ratings for them here.
Happy watching.
