A few thoughts to make sense of the evening …
I think we’ve got relative confidence of the outcomes of the most of the races. For Dems, New Hampshire and North Carolina. For the GOP, Kentucky, Arkansas and (alas) Colorado. I’m not saying these are certain. Just we’ve got a pretty good idea what’s probably going to happen.
A key point is that even if the GOP eventually wins, it’s unlikely that either Louisiana or Georgia will be decided tonight. Louisiana, extremely unlikely and Georgia, fairly unlikely.
Given the time difference, we won’t know about Alaska this evening. And the key there is that polling much less reliable in Alaska than in other states. Neither party has a great deal of confidence that they know what’s really going on in the state. And all seem to agree that Begich has the stronger ground operation. All that said, Sullivan has had a small but fairly consistent lead. Alaska remains a wildcard just because there’s less confidence on both sides in the polls.
That leaves us with two races that really seem too close to call and where the all the attention is likely to be: Iowa and Kansas.
Iowa is really where it all comes down to to me. Polltracker currently gives Ernst a +2.1 margin. The Des Moines Register poll, which has long been considered the gold standard poll in the state gave Ernst a whopping 7 point margin, the biggest she’s had in any legit poll. But Quinnipiac just polled it at 47% – 47%. Ernst definitely has the advantage. But these are the small margins that can end up going either way, especially when you figure in aggressive ground and early vote efforts.
Kansas is neck and neck, even though our current PollTracker Average gives Orman, the independent, a +2.2 margin. Here again, though the mix of the state’s deeply Republican disposition and the extreme unpopularity of Roberts, make it very hard to be confident about the outcome.
Put it all together and it’s actually fairly likely that control of the Senate will not be determined tonight – because of those two states that are likely to go to run offs. The question is whether it’s a theoretically possibility the Dems win it in December or January or a realistic chance. That really comes down to Iowa and Alaska and in a weirder way, Kansas.
More soon.
