There’s a lot of news going on this week (no, we’re not complaining). So let’s take a moment to observe a pretty embarrassing series of developments in the House GOP leadership transition. Last week, out-going Speaker Boehner scheduled a vote to succeed him for this Thursday, Oct. 8. In case you’re just waking up and need this emphasized, that’s really, really soon – just three days away. Meanwhile, heir apparent Kevin McCarthy chose last week to kick off an embarrassing gaffe saga which not only raised serious questions about whether he’s ready to be, effectively, one of the party’s key national spokesmen, but also threatened a critical GOP asset: the ability to use the deaths of four Americans in Benghazi in 2012 to raise money and lower the poll numbers of Hillary Clinton. In other words, a big deal. The story was pushed out of the headlines in part by the horrific massacre in Oregon. But the story seems to still be escalating. So McCarthy’s march to his coronation is likely to continue to proceed in parallel with a chorus of calls for him to apologize, recant, prove he’s not a doofus and even drop out of the run for Speaker. And those are all coming not from Democrats or the media but from Republicans!
Normally, this would all make McCarthy’s candidacy look like it’s taken a fatal hit. But there’s a problem. There’s no one else but him. For very different reactions – before this goof – all the key factions had reasons to support or at least not oppose McCarthy. The establishment group supports him. And, as I said last week, it’s standard though by no means guaranteed that a Majority Leader will take over when a Speaker departs. The hard right faction in the House saw no need to oppose him because they are not interested in and likely not able to elect one of their own. They want someone who is pliant and manageable. McCarthy fits the bill as good as anyone.
Since I started writing this post last week, Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT), even slightly more junior than McCarthy, has himself entered the race for Speaker. He’s clearly making his play to be a Speaker not only controlled by but of the party base, seeing as he’s now saying his speakership will be pro-shutdown, pro-default. That said, I’m not sure his entry really changes the equation. His run seems more of a lark driven by personal initiative than a change in basic strategy on the part of right wing representatives who toppled Boehner and whose votes he aspires to receive. If these folks did decide to run one of their own, I have to imagine they’d run a stronger individual than Chaffetz.
To make sense of the current situation it’s important to realize just how accidental McCarthy’s autopilot glide into the speakership really is. It only came about because of one semi-predictable and another utterly unpredictable accident of recent history. McCarthy is only in his 5th term in the House. He was first elected in 2006 and became House Majority Whip when he was sworn for his third term in 2011. That’s an astonishing ascent. For him to be in the position he is in today, obviously Boehner had to retire. But the really big thing was the totally shocking defeat of Eric Cantor in a primary election last year.
By definition, with Boehner having departed on the terms that he did, any successor will be weaker than he was. Which is saying something. If a faction pushed out your predecessor, their threat to toss you is even more credible – especially if the successor is a nondescript figure with no core constituency of his or her own. Which pretty much defines McCarthy to a tee.
Whatever else you could say about John Boehner he had deep roots in the House (arrived in 1990), got into the leadership early, and had relationships with key players going back decades. No, he couldn’t bring the right wing faction to heel. But I doubt anyone could. In fact, it was a structural fit. The right faction in the House isn’t quite large enough and definitely not presentable enough to formally hold the leadership. What is more functional on both sides is to exert de facto control through a weak leadership of more establishment figures.
The only question now is whether McCarthy will take the Speaker’s gavel even too weak and ridiculous to fill this accustomed role. In other words, could he become so weak than he can’t even serve as a weak Speaker controlled by the GOP right? It is almost reminiscent of the way an occupying power or great power can install a pliant leadership it prefers to deal with but finally decides the installed leadership is so pitiful and ineffectual that it makes more sense to align nominal with actual power and just be done with it. Sort of like dispensing with abu Mazen and working directly with Hamas or just deciding to negotiate directly with the Taliban and dispense with the government in Kabul. Could we see McCarthy being helicoptered out of the Capitol by the Marines some time next year and receiving asylum in Palau?
For now, McCarthy has three more days until he’s elevated to the speaker-in-waiting amidst a chorus of attacks and ridicule from members of his own caucus. Whatever happens, whether he’s elected Speaker or (far less likely) he’s defeated, the situation in the House looks set to become far more chaotic for the foreseeable future.
