Down to the Wire …


As I mentioned earlier, the whole TPM crew is going to be working tomorrow, bringing you the results as they come in from the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary (the Dems hold theirs next Saturday). And the race I’m most interested in is the South Carolina primary.

We have the final polls listed here.

The gist is that McCain has been in the lead in the last 16 polls released. McCain jumped into the lead right after New Hampshire. But the trend clearly seems to be swinging back to Huckabee.

Late Update: One final poll from ARG out late this evening has Huckabee vaulting ahead of McCain. From a poll taken just two days before it has Huckabee picking up ten points and McCain dropping 7 — for a final Huck 33%, McCain 26% tally. ARG has, it must be said, a really bad record of predictions so far this year. But my take away from this is less the absolute number than the shift in Huckabee’s direction — something found in a number of polls over the last two or three days. Another factor is the weather, which is supposed to be downright terrible tomorrow. Depending on where you are it will either be snowing or pouring cold rain. There’s really no way to know what that does or who it helps. But the conventional wisdom is that it helps Huckabee whose supporters, the state’s evangelical voters, are more impassioned and enthusiastic.