I punched the data into the seat calculator and consulted a swingometer, but I overlooked one thing: the gamblers. While no one in political punditry puts their money where their mouth is, these guys do. And what do the bettors say? The average spread for the size of the Labour majority is 89 seats. Above the danger zone for Blair, but since itâs below the expectations of the polls which are putting the majority in the triple digits, it could mean trouble for Blair with his own backbenchers.
So whatâs going on?
A friend of mine at a major British paper tells me that the senior editors at his august publication are not encouraged with the “mood on the ground” reports they’re getting from their correspondents from various constituencies this morning. Like the gamblers, most of the editors are predicting a majority in the 80s, with one guessing it could be as low as 60.
Of course, this could be lingering resentment toward Blair that these editors are hearing in their own Islington echo-chambers (how many of your friends on the Upper West Side were convinced that Kerry was going to win?). But, take the reports from the ground, add in the wisdom of the market, and the targeted campaigns that the Tories and Lib Dems ran, and it could be a rough next few weeks for Blair -â and a rougher one for Howard. The reports in todayâs papers are that the Lib Dems are making in-roads in Tory constituencies, meaning that like in 2001, they may be the biggest winners.
A battered Tony Blair, an invigorated anti-war Lib Dem party -â it has the makings of a bad day for President Bush.
