With Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) resigning from Congress, it is worth looking at the statistics from his district for the upcoming special election.
Roll Call has rated the seat, based 70% in Queens plus parts of Brooklyn as “Safe Democratic.” The Dems certainly do have the advantage, but underneath there have been some shifts in the Republicans’ direction in recent cycles.
The district voted 55%-44% for Barack Obama in 2008 — but a decade ago it was even more Democratic, having voted in 2000 for Al Gore by 68%-30%, but then shifted to only 56%-44% for John Kerry in 2004. This actually puts the district among the few in the country where Obama under-performed Kerry’s percentage, though only by a slight margin.
On the Congressional level, Weiner never faced serious opposition. For example, he won 61% of the vote in 2010, 93% in 2008, was unopposed in 2006. Thus, Democrats begin with a hefty advantage here, especially in the wake of the Dems’ pickup of the upstate NY-26 based on Republican proposals to privatize Medicare. But nevertheless, this one bears keeping an eye on.
