A new poll out of Louisiana finds that David Vitter could be forced into a runoff against his main primary rival, former state Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor, if voters are kept aware of Vitter’s scandalous past.
The survey, conducted by the Market Research Institute, finds Vitter leading the pack of Republican hopefuls with 46 percent support, followed by Traylor with 34 percent, and 21 percent undecided. Vitter would have to secure more than 51 percent of the votes in the August 28 primary to avoid a runoff.
The poll was conducted on behalf of Traylor’s campaign and the results reflect voter opinion after being reminded of Vitter’s connection to the D.C. madam prostitution scandal. Vitter, according to the poll, has similar numbers when voters are informed that Vitter employed aide Brent Furer for roughly two years after Furer was arrested for violently assaulting his girlfriend.
Lacking Vitter’s name recognition, Traylor needs a strong protest showing to either oust Vitter or force him into a runoff. By publicizing the results of this survey, he’s basically offering 527s and independent expenditure groups a blueprint for a messaging and ad campaign that will get results. Many of his supporters are wealthy, but are hamstrung by direct donation limits. They face no such limits to their donations to outside advocates, who would then carry the water for Traylor on these issues.
The statewide poll measured opinion of 400 registered Republicans. The winner of the primary will likely face Democrat Charlie Melancon on the November 2 general election. TPM’s Polltracker average has Vitter leading Melancon by 13 percent.
