Trump May Have Already Lost Nevada, A Bad Sign For Down Ballot Republicans

Evan Vucci

When early voting ended in Nevada's largest Clark County Friday night, Democrats had a nearly 73,000 vote advantage, larger than President Obama had four years ago when he won the state by 7 points.

The stats were gathered by Nevada's premier political reporter Jon Ralston, who wrote Saturday morning that Trump "needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day" to pull out a win in Nevada now.

Statewide – and without all the rural counties counted– it looked as if Democrats had a roughly 45,000 vote advantage in Nevada, Ralston reported. That translates into about a 6-point Democratic lead already banked going into Election Day, a sign that Clinton may pull out a win there and assist Democrats down ballot, too.

The highly contested race to fill the Senate seat of the retiring Harry Reid could determine who controls the Senate, giving the Nevada early voting numbers even more national significance.

Nevada has been a closely watched state this cycle, and the public polling has been close. Despite a larger Latino population, Trump was still polling within low, single digits of Clinton there, a reflection of both a large blue collar white population and a state that's battled a slower economic recovery.

Dave Wasserman, another data pundit and congressional race expert, warned that the early vote numbers in Nevada were a bad sign for down ballot Republicans who needed Trump not to crater at the top of the ticket.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Lauren Fox is a reporter at Talking Points Memo.
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