It might be a painful night for House Democrats on November 2. Most analysts are predicting a Republican takeover of the House, with as many as 80 or so seats in play, and the GOP only needing to win 39 to seize back control. The TPM Poll Average shows voters nationwide prefer generic Congressional Republican candidates over Democrats 47.3%-40.7%.
Many of the Democrats who won in the Obama 2008 tidal wave are the most vulnerable, and the Democrats who captured Bush-won districts in 2006 aren’t breathing much easier. But Democrats see glimmers of hope in open seats, and may win some of their own.
TPM chose 10 House races to watch this fall. They will be competitive, likely entertaining, and are bellwethers to help determine whether the nation sees Speaker Pelosi or Speaker Boehner at the dais come January.
The list is by no means exhaustive, and we compiled it through our own reporting and by speaking with operatives from both parties. There are, of course, dozens of House races that will be fascinating this fall, and there are bound to be some surprises. Top prognosticators Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg are making predictions, with Cook pegging 77 seats as tossups, and Rothenberg saying there are 81 Democratic seats in play.
We’re not looking into a crystal ball, and the only thing that’s certain is that these races are going to play into the bigger picture come November. In no particular order, here are TPM’s Top 10 House races to watch.
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) was first elected in a June 2004 special election, and represents the entire state. She’s a conservative Blue Dog, and one reason this race is so critical is that Herseth Sandlin is running against health care reform, using TV ads to proudly tout her vote opposing the landmark legislation. Appearing last week on ABC’s TopLine, Herseth Sandlin gave President Obama a “C” grade, earning her big headlines back home.
State Rep. Kristi Noem (R) recently emerged from a GOP primary and was looking like a strong candidate until the local press unearthed her bad driving record with multiple speeding violations.
A new Rasmussen poll out Friday shows Herseth Sandlin leading Noem 47-45 — a big turnaround from past Rasmussen polling. The previous Rasmussen poll, from August, showed Noem leading 51-42. Sandlin might be rebounding, though the race remains in the tossup category for most analysts.
The TPM Poll Average shows Herseth Sandlin leading Noem 47.2-45.0.
Sandlin has shown solid fundraising while on the defensive this year, and the DCCC will spend an additional $500,000 on her race. As of June 30, Sandlin had $706,821 cash on hand and Noem had $291,677 in the bank.
We’ve written a ton about this central and Southside Virginia district, one which Republicans probably must win if they want to take control of the House. Rep. Tom Perriello (D) was elected by fewer than 727 votes out of over 315,000 cast in 2008, unseating a Republican incumbent. He’s been put on the defensive for supporting health care and a cap-and-trade climate bill that passed the House last summer — unpopular moves among his constituents.
But Perriello also is the candidate Democrats in Washington cite most frequently as doing the right thing by clearly communicating his beliefs to the district, even though he’s being crushed by his Republican rival state Sen. Robert Hurt in the polls. (After this post was published, Democrats argued that the polling showing a blowout aren’t accurate, sending along a Perriello internal poll showing it’s a close race, and a Republican internal poll showing him losing by six points.)
Hurt, a lawyer from the small town of Chatham who was a state delegate before winning a state senate seat, emerged surprisingly strong from a competitive Republican primary that focused on his 2004 vote for a $1.4 billion tax increase package pushed by then-Gov. Mark Warner (D). Complicating things for the Republican — the NRCC aide who is taking heat for tweeting the home addresses of Perriello aides.
Hurt has his own problems, though, with tea party candidate Jeffrey Clark running as an independent and attempting to siphon votes away from him. Clark also is accusing Hurt’s campaign of dirty tricks.
Perriello had a whopping $1.7 million in the bank as of June 30. Hurt was badly lagging, with $216,000 cash on hand as of June 30, but he is highly expected to have done well this quarter and is getting a boost from national Republicans.
Freshman Rep. Dina Titus (D) is on the ropes in this pivotal swing state. Titus, who won in 2008 with the help of Obama voters, is suffering in her reelection bid because of Nevada’s especially bad economy, and high unemployment and foreclosure rates.
Republicans plan to run attack ads to remind voters in the district – the suburbs of Las Vegas – that she voted for health care reform and cap-and-trade. But the campaign has mostly focused on the Silver State’s economic woes.
Joe Heck is among the GOP’s favorite Republicans this year. He’s a state senator and doctor, and national GOPers praise his fundraising strength and general success as a candidate.
“This is a district Harry Reid must win if he wants to return to the Senate, so look for third-party groups to be very active on Las Vegas television,” a Republican told TPM.
Polls show the candidates neck-and-neck, with Heck slightly leading Titus 43.8%-42.8% in the TPM Poll Average.
But like so many of the incumbents this year, she has the fundraising advantage. As of June 30, Heck had $362,138 cash on hand and Titus had $1.2 million.
Democrats strongly believe their candidate can defeat Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao (R) in this district, which includes New Orleans. Cao won in 2008 in large part due to former Rep. William “Dollar Bill” Jefferson’s ethics scandals. Cao’s voted with the Democrats more than any other Republican this year, including for the first version of health care reform. He opposed final passage because he felt it did not have adequate pro-life provisions.
But it’s a deep blue district, which favors Cao’s challenger State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D), who recently won a crowded primary.
Richmond last month had $166,000 cash on hand, while Cao had $301,000 in the bank. TPM sources said Democrats believe Richmond has a big lead, and there are no recent public polls. Cao’s internal poll showed him leading this summer.
Tarryl Clark (D) has attracted more attention from national Democrats than perhaps any other House candidate. She’s attacking Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) as someone more interested in national ambitions and the tea party than voters in her sprawling district north of the twin cities.
As TPM reported from Netroots this summer, Clark is a favorite among progressives who are donating to her candidacy in droves.
Bachmann, a conservative darling who’s become something of a TPM favorite, leads this race. It’s a strong Republican district and polls this summer showed her ahead by 10 points.
Both women have been proving their fundraising chops, and each has a campaign war chest. FEC reports show Bachmann had $2.4 million cash on hand at the end of the second quarter, and Clark had just under $800,000.
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The race to replace Rep. Mark Kirk, a moderate Republican who is running for U.S. Senate, was cited by both Republicans and Democrats as a key one to keep an eye on this fall. It’s a very expensive media market covering the northern Chicago suburbs. It’s a repeat bid for Dan Seals (D). The Democrats believe IL-10 is a good example of a district they can win by going on offense. Republicans say it will be “a close race either way.”
Bob Dold (R) won the three-way Republican primary and the national GOP says he’s a fiscal conservative but social moderate. But Democrats say the pro-life Dold is “way too conservative” for the district, which backed Kirk as he supported stem cell research and climate change legislation.
“They elect people that are in the middle,” a Democratic operative told TPM.
The candidates are neck-and-neck in fundraising, with Dold reporting $725,468 in the bank as of June 30 and Seals having $792,021 cash on hand.
Seals was leading Dold by 13 points in a Democratic pollster’s survey earlier this month.
Democrats say they are “confident” they can unseat Rep. Dan Lungren (R), a longtime incumbent who served as attorney general of California during the 1990s before returning for a second stint in Congress after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Democrats are hopeful in the Golden State because Lungren was reelected to the Sacramento-area district with less than 50 percent of the vote in 2008. Obama and Sen. John McCain split the district 49%-49%.
Local physician Ami Bera (D) has repeatedly outraised Lungren. The incumbent Republican had $802,000 in the bank as of June 30, while Bera had $1.1 million, numbers that signaled to the DCCC that Bera is a serious candidate.
“He’s the best candidate we’ve ever had,” a Democrat told TPM.
Democrats started to really worry when longtime Appropriations Chairman Dave Obey (D) announced his retirement. Obey’s campaigning for Julie Lassa (D) to be his replacement, but Republicans believe they have a prime opportunity to capture a long-blue seat in central Wisconsin.
Washington GOPers frequently cite nominee Sean Duffy (R) as one of the best candidates in the country for his enthusiasm, messaging and strong fundraising. He’s been Ashland County District Attorney since 2002.
Democrats have tried to tarnish Duffy as an empty suit given his national debut on MTV’s Real World: Boston in 1997. Each of them faces a lesser-known challenger in Tuesday’s primaries, but both parties expect Lassa and Duffy to be the nominee.
This fall there is a competitive Senate race on the ballot — businessman Ron Johnson is challenging progressive favorite Sen. Russ Feingold — which will boost turnout. Republicans believe if they win in this district — which they view as a Democratic firewall — they can pick off enough seats to win back control of the House.
FEC reports show Duffy, who has earned Sarah Palin’s endorsement and cash, had $694,356 in the bank at the most recent reporting period in late August. Lassa had $402,915.
One August poll showed Duffy leading Lassa 41%-33%.
This race in the Columbus area is a rematch of the 2008 campaign, with State Sen. Steve Stivers facing off against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D).
Kilroy narrowly defeated Stivers in 2008 when it was an open seat, with each earning just over 45% of the vote.
Democrats think Kilroy is a strong candidate given her record of being independent. She recently signed a letter to Obama asking that he not cut Social Security, for example.
The Dems also plan to recycle many of the attacks they used on Stivers two years ago – including pointing out to voters that he’s a bank lobbyist.
It’s also a race where there are several third-party candidates who might split the Republican vote this fall.
As of June 30, Stivers had outraised Kilroy and had $1.24 million in the bank to her $933,626. Two August polls show Stivers leading Kilroy by 5 points.
Both parties think Blue Dog Rep. Ben Chandler (D) is a big target in November. The Lexington-area district is the cheapest one in the nation for advertising, and operatives expect heavy spending from outside groups targeting Chandler as anti-coal since he voted for cap-and-trade. Republicans think they can unseat him, but Democrats think Chandler is in a good position to fend off the challenge from first-time candidate, attorney Andy Barr.
Polls have Chandler with a wide lead despite a high number of undecided voters.
Barr, 36, is another one of those Republican candidates the party is thrilled about this year. Democrats say they also are thrilled, because they want to remind voters that Barr was a top legal aide to former Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who faced ethical troubles.
Barr raised more than double what Chandler pulled in during the second quarter, but the incumbent Democrat had $1.74 million in the bank as of June 30, far more than Barr, who had $360,892 on hand.
“Look for this to be an early indicator of a bad night for Democrats when November rolls around,” a Republican said.
And just as a reminder for how tough it looks for Dems, here’s the generic congressional ballot question, showing how Republicans have really pulled away this summer:
Additional reporting by Jon Terbush
