Republican Senate hopeful former Rep. Pat Toomey leads Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in a new survey of Pennsylvania voters by Public Policy Polling (D).
Toomey leads Sestak 45-36. The survey of 585 likely voters has a ±4.1% margin of error. The poll shows a big swing from the last time PPP surveyed the field and on June 21 released a poll which found voters evenly split with Sestak and Toomey at 41% each.
The TPM Poll Average of this race is Toomey 44.8%-Sestak 42.0%.
The previous poll average before this new PPP poll was Toomey 43.9%-Sestak 42.3%
PPP’s Tom Jensen writes:
Toomey’s winning for the same reasons most Republican candidates across the country are doing well in key races right now:
-He has a 50-23 lead with independent voters.
-He’s benefiting from a much more unified party, as he leads 74-9 with Republicans while Sestak is currently up only 64-15 with Democrats.
-This is our first poll of the race explicitly surveying likely voters and given the considerably greater enthusiasm on the Republican side we’re seeing an electorate in the state that voted for John McCain by a point in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama’s actual 10 point victory in the state.
