The Top Of The GOP Ticket Is Helping Senate Democrats Already

Senate Minority Leader Mitch MccConnell, R-Ky., and Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, take the escalator to the CVC for a news conference on health care reform on Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2009. (CQ Roll Call via AP Images)
Start your day with TPM.
Sign up for the Morning Memo newsletter

Democrats are gaining ground in six Senate races, and it has everything to do with it becoming increasingly clear that Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will be the Republican Party’s presidential nominee.

According to a newly released analysis by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, senate races in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Missouri and North Carolina are looking to be more favorable for Democrats than previously predicted as moderate and independent voters grow disillusioned with the GOP.

“Considering the rise of Donald Trump, the polarization in U.S. politics, and a higher rate of straight-ticket voting, this could be bad news for the GOP,” a team of analysts at the UVA Center for Politics wrote.

While the analysts are not predicting that Democrats can pull off victories in all of the states they moved in the Democrats’ direction, the shift reveals that many are expecting Trump and Cruz to be a drag on down-ballot races.

The Center for Politics’ analysis moved the Senate race in Colorado from “leaning Democratic” to “likely Democratic,” the races in Missouri and North Carolina from “likely Republican” to merely “leans Republican” and the races in Ohio and Pennsylvania from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”

In Iowa, where Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley has declared he will not hold hearings to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court, the race has moved from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican.”

As Center for Politics points out, Grassley has always performed well in Iowa, amassing more than 60 percent of the vote in the last five re-elections. But, choosing against hearings for Obama’s Supreme Court Nominee Merrick Garland could hurt Grassley’s chances with moderate and independent voters in Iowa he has come to rely on for his strong re-election numbers.

Latest DC

Notable Replies

  1. “…choosing against hearings for Obama’s Supreme Court Nominee Merrick Garland could hurt Grassley’s chances with moderate and independent voters in Iowa he has come to rely on for his strong re-election numbers.”

    In a two person Senate contest I'm sure Grassley will be just dandy with garnering 50.1% of the vote.
  2. Grassfed still has his marching orders and money from the Kochs, as well as tons of dark superPAC money. He’ll do just fine in Iowa.

  3. Man it would be so fucking awesome if we could win the white house and make headway in congress so we could actually start moving forward again.

  4. The Missouri race might be a sleeper. The Dems have an excellent candidate who might be able to surprise tired old Blunt if the nominee is Trump

Continue the discussion at forums.talkingpointsmemo.com

30 more replies

Participants

Avatar for system1 Avatar for milwaukeekent Avatar for brooklyndweller Avatar for leftflank Avatar for humpback Avatar for commiedearest Avatar for steviedee111 Avatar for mantan Avatar for grandpoobah Avatar for baffie2 Avatar for maurizio689 Avatar for midnight_rambler Avatar for ignoreland Avatar for stiggy Avatar for dickweed Avatar for ronbyers Avatar for jaybeeraybee Avatar for fiftygigs Avatar for pshah Avatar for jayhiker Avatar for meta Avatar for boisdevache Avatar for coimmigrant Avatar for grants

Continue Discussion
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Deputy Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: