On Monday, the Tax Policy Center released a new analysis of the House tax bill that disproves claims from GOP leadership and the Trump administration that the deep tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy will create so much economic growth that the bill will pay for itself.
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin recently insisted that “not only will this tax plan pay for itself, but it will pay down debt.” White House economic adviser Gary Cohn agreed, saying that “we can pay for the entire tax cut through growth over the cycle.”
Yet the new study by the Tax Policy Center finds that while the bill would somewhat boost the nation’s economic output, leading to more revenue for the government, it would not be enough to offset the revenue lost by the tax cuts. The net effect of the bill would be to increase the deficit by $1.27 trillion over 10 years.
The estimated growth would be lower than promised and the impact would diminish over time. The Tax Policy Center estimates that the tax cuts would increase the U.S. GDP by 0.6 percent in 2018, 0.3 percent in 2027, and 0.2 percent in 2037.
The revenue generated by the growth would be about $169 billion over 10 years—a drop in the bucket to the revenue the government would lose over that same period.
This study echoes the findings of other analyses—including one conducted by President Trump’s alma mater, the Wharton School of Business—showing that even when taking growth into account through so-called dynamic scoring, the tax bill would still balloon the deficit.
Read the full report below:
Alice Ollstein is a reporter at Talking Points Memo, covering national politics. She graduated from Oberlin College in 2010 and has been reporting in DC ever since, covering the Supreme Court, Congress and national elections for TV, radio, print, and online outlets. Her work has aired on Free Speech Radio News, All Things Considered, Channel News Asia, and Telesur, and her writing has been published by The Atlantic, La Opinión, and The Hill Rag. She was elected in 2016 as an at-large board member of the DC Chapter of the Society of Professional Journalists. Alice grew up in Santa Monica, California and began working for local newspapers in her early teens.