So what next for Indiana’s Third District, where GOP Congressman Mark Souder has announced that he will resign because of a sex scandal?
Dale Simmons, the Republican co-general counsel for the state elections division, tells TPMDC that state law requires at least 60 days from the vacancy itself for a special election to be held. The law does not specifically require that an election be held, but prior case law suggests that an election should be held if there is a “meaningful term” left to be filled. The parties would select their nominees through an internal party process, not through primaries.
It should also be noted that Souder already won his primary two weeks ago, fending off self-funding GOP challenger Bob Thomas by a margin of 48%-34%. So the GOP will also have to use an same internal process to select a new nominee — similar to how the Dems picked Rep. Brad Ellsworth as their nominee for Senate, replacing Sen. Evan Bayh.
Indian’s Third District voted 56%-43% for John McCain in 2008, and before that it voted 68%-31% for George W. Bush in 2004.
Republican sources are confident that the GOP will hold the seat, given the district’s historic GOP margins. On the other hand, a Dem source in Indiana argued that state-level Dems are different from national ones, and have won in districts where Democratic presidential candidates have performed poorly.
Democrats already had a nominee in former Fort Wayne city councilman Tom Hayhurst, who previously took 46% of the vote when he was the Democratic nominee against Souder in 2006. Among the possible GOP candidates, according to top local reporter Brian Howey, is state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who lost the U.S. Senate primary two weeks ago and had the support of many conservative activists.
