The race for Senate control is very close and there’s a significant chance that Americans won’t know on election night which party controls the Senate.
It may even remain an open question until after the next Congress convenes on Jan. 3, 2015.
That uncertainty could spark chaos in the lame-duck session and hit pause on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) plans to redecorate the majority leader’s ornate suite.
Forecasters roundly give Republicans an edge to win the net six seats they need to claim the Senate majority. The New York Times sees a one-third chance that the race will end in a 50-50 tie or be decided by a one-seat margin.
Here are four plausible scenarios that could push the Senate fight into overtime.
Sen. Mary Landrieu, right, D-La., greets Senate candidate, Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-La., before their debate in Shreveport, La., Oct. 14, 2014. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
1. Likely runoff in Louisiana
Bill Cassidy (R) holds a steady lead over Sen. Mary Laudrieu (D), but neither candidate is expected to cross the 50 percent threshold required by Louisiana’s “jungle primary” rules to claim victory on election night. Tea party candidate Rob Maness and two other candidates on the Nov. 4 ballot are collectively pulling 18 percent, according to the TPM PollTracker average.
If neither candidate wins an outright majority on the main ballot, a runoff election between the top two will take place on Dec. 6.
Georgia Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Michelle Nunn, right, passes Republican candidate David Perdue following a debate, Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014, in Perry, Ga. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
2. Possible Georgia runoff
The rules in Georgia also require one Senate candidate to break 50 percent to win the race to succeed retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R).
David Perdue (R) and Michelle Nunn (D) are in a statistical dead heat, and the presence of libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford on the main ballot — who is pulling between 3 and 4 percentage points — could force a runoff.
A potential runoff would occur on Jan. 6, three days after the new Congress is sworn in.
Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska speaks to reporters after a joint session of the Alaska Legislature in Juneau, Alaska. (AP Photo/Becky Bohrer, File)
3. Alaska’s vote count delay
The large and sparsely populated Alaska is notorious for failing to count votes in a timely manner. A close Senate election in 2008 wasn’t called for more than two weeks, and the 2010 race also took several weeks to conclude, in part due to a quirk involving Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) running as a write-in candidate.
Dan Sullivan (R) holds an edge against Sen. Mark Begich (D), but the race is close. That means the Alaska Senate contest could hang for days or weeks in the Last Frontier State.
Independent Kansas U.S. Senate candidate Greg Orman (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
4. Greg Orman’s decision
Greg Orman, the independent candidate in Kansas, is neck-and-neck with Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. He has not announced which party he’d caucus with if he wins. Many have presumed that Orman, a former Democrat himself, would caucus with Democrats.
But Orman take can his time to decide. And if Republicans end up with a 50-49 edge in the remaining races, his decision would determine whether or not the GOP can break Vice President Joe Biden’s tie-breaking vote.
President Bush, right, poses for a photo with former Vice President Al Gore and other 2007 Nobel Prize recipients, in Nov. 26, 2007. In 2000, the two faced off in the most high-profile recount in U.S. history. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert/FILE)
5. Potential recounts
There are hotly contested races in numerous states, each with their own set of recount laws, as tracked by the Minnesota-based Citizens For Election Integrity.
North Carolina lets a candidate for statewide office demand a recount if the difference in the election is 0.5 percent of the votes cast, or fewer than 10,000 votes — whichever is smaller.
Iowa offers options for candidates and voters to request recounts, but it is up to three-person boards in individual counties to decide whether and how votes ought to be recounted, based on factors like knowledge of error and misconduct.
Colorado lets candidates seek a recount if the difference between the apparent winner and runner-up divided by the total votes cast for the apparent winner is 0.5 percent or less. That’s an unusual way to tabulate the margin, and requires a very close election to trigger a recount.
Kentucky allows candidates to seek a recount if they received 25 percent of the votes cast for the candidate with the most votes. They must file within 10 days of a general election.
Kansas permits any candidate to file for a recount by the Monday after the election. It’s free for candidates who lose by 0.5 percent or less of the total votes cast, but those who lose by more than that are required to post a bond and pay the costs — which are refunded if the candidate is later declared the victor.
South Dakota triggers an automatic recount in the event of an absolute tie vote. Candidates may also ask for one if they lose by a margin of 2 percent or less of the overall vote cast for all candidates seeking the office.
Arkansas has a free-flowing recount law, permitting any candidate for office to ask for a recount in a precinct if he or she is “dissatisfied with the returns from any precinct.” The request has to be filed within two days of Election Day.
