It’s an election between a former Secretary of State and a never-before elected Manhattan business mogul who until recently wasn’t raising much money, has some serious reservations about decades-old American commitments to NATO and has just recently begin beefing up the grassroots infrastructure many candidates spend years building. And yet, this presidential election looks pretty close by a lot of metrics.
On Capitol Hill, however, Senate Democrats are brushing off any suggestion that Clinton is struggling – or that they’re nervous about her chances.
“I’m not nervous,” said Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), an unabashed Clinton supporter. “They go up, they go down, they go sideways, so we’re confident. I’m not one of the unconfident ones. … Don’t make up a story that doesn’t exist.”
Democratic Pollster Celinda Lake happened to be on Capitol Hill on Tuesday. She offered a more sober analysis of Clinton’s chances. Lake still thought Clinton had the edge, but she had a message for Democrats who are feeling nervous about how close the race has become.
“I say you’re right to be,” Lake said. “We need to worry about turnout. We need to worry about women voters and getting women voters out of undecided over to Hillary Clinton and we are going to have some real gender gaps among married men and married women and we need to reinforce with married women to make up their own minds and have their own opinions. I always thought it would be close so this would have been my recommendation two years ago too.”
Lake points out that in battleground states, Clinton is actually doing a bit better in polls than she is nationwide. Clinton may even have some opportunities in states like Arizona and Georgia where Obama lost. However, there are also places where Clinton’s camp may be losing ground like Nevada.
“The good news is the math is better for us than it is for Trump. So he really has to run the table in those swing states. We can afford to lose even Ohio and Florida and still win,” Lake said.
Perhaps sensing that public expressions of concern would do little to help Clinton, Democratic senators offered mostly upbeat assessments.
“Take a look at this morning’s paper. Hillary–in a national poll–is up five points, and I think it will allay some of the fears people had. I think she is going to win. She certainly is in a solid position when it comes to the Electoral College. I wish her margin was even larger, but if you look, Trump seems to be stalled,” said Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL). “She and Kaine and others are reaching out to these millennials and trying to persuade them that its a wasted vote to go to a third party candidate.”
The choice, they argue is just too stark for American to ignore.
“I have strong confidence not only in the secretary’s campaign and her chances of winning, but also in the American people ultimately are going to see Donald Trump for who he is and reject it. I think there is so much hatred and bigotry being spewed by that side that I think there is going to be rejection of that,” said Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ). “Every week he insults another group of Americans. It’s almost routine. I don’t think that’s going to change. He’s showed us who he is. We should believe him.”
Other Democrats simply are looking at the polls with intense doubt, something that Trump sort of did himself when polls showed him losing ground across the country in the end of July and early August.
“I have a certain skepticism about polls being a consumer of them in various different ways. I need to know how they are done, when they’re done and I think trends are important. There is now question the race has tightened. I have said from the very outset that I think it will be a close election,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT).
His fellow Connecticut lawmaker also expressed concern about the quality of polling in the race.
“I’m not surprised its close,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT). “I think
there are lots of voters who don’t actually focus and make up their
minds until the world series is done with. I’m also not sure that the
polls today are as relevant as people hope they are. I think that you’re
polling an electorate that isn’t ripe. There are a lot of people who
will answer your question, but they haven’t actually sat down to think
about their choice.”
Democrats are banking most of their hope at this point on the fact that Trump has fumbled at every turn. He’s insulted a Gold Star family, he’s attacked a federal judge for his “Mexican heritage,” he’s been admonished by those in his own party and publicly ridiculed anyone who has gone after him. Despite the polling, Democrats believe Clinton is competing against a candidate with the shortest of fuses.
“At the end of the day, Americans are going to be making a decision. You
have two pretty distinct candidates with two pretty distinct different
visions about America’s future and the principle values of our nation. I
have confidence that the majority of Americans are going to choose
Hillary Clinton and she’s going to be the next president,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD)
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) went as far as to offer up a bold prediction.
“I’m going to predict Hillary will win Florida by five points,” Nelson said. “People are beginning to focus and when they focus, they see that they can’t afford to elect Donald Trump.”
One Democrat didn’t really want to talk about the state of polls as they stand, but she says Trump is probably reason enough for Clinton to win.
“I’m so tired of horse race,” Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) said. “It is mostly the shortcomings of her opponent combined with the infrastructure she has in place and who she is and who she has been for a long time.”
Annie Rees contributed to this report
