The new Rasmussen poll of the Kentucky Senate race gives Republican nominee Rand Paul a stable lead of seven points over Democrat Jack Conway in the race for the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Jim Bunning.
The numbers: Paul 49%, Conway 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. A month ago, Paul led by a similar 49%-41%. The TPM Poll Average gives Paul a lead of 50.7%-41.3%.
The pollster’s analysis finds a stability to the race, with the exception of an immediate post-primary bump for Paul: “Support for both nominees is virtually identical to results found earlier this month. Just after Paul’s big primary win in May, he bounced to a short-lived 25-point lead over Conway. With the exception of immediately after his primary win, Paul has received between 46% and 50% support in match-ups with Conway since January. During the same period, Conway has earned between 34% and 41% of the vote. The Democrat has never led in matchups between the two candidates.”
