A new poll from Rasmussen — not usually the first pollster Democrats look to for good news — shows that Democrat Jack Conway has Republican Rand Paul on the run in the Kentucky Senate race. The new poll shows Paul leading by just five, a significant drop from the last Rasmussen poll which showed Paul up by 11.
In the new numbers, Paul is ahead 47-42. The poll of likely voters was taken yesterday using Rasmussen’s robo-poll system, meaning the survey came as controversy over Conway’s latest tactics reached a fever pitch. The last Rasmussen poll was taken Sept. 29, before Conway’s attacks on Paul’s college career and in the midst of the war over Paul’s position on Medicare. That poll showed Paul ahead 49-38.
If the Rasmussen poll is any judge, Conway’s plan of attack appears to be working. As the pollster notes in its analysis, the new poll is Conway’s “best showing since June.”
What’s more, voters in Kentucky appear to be buying Conway’s claim that Paul is too extreme for the Bluegrass State.
“Only 39% of voters in the state now regard Paul’s political views as mainstream, down from 47% in August,” the pollster writes. “Forty-four percent (44%) say he’s extreme, a 10-point increase from the prior survey.”
Paul still has a lot to be happy about in the new poll, however, not the least of which is a hefty lead among independent voters.
“Paul has the support of 78% of Republicans in the state, while 69% of Democrats favor Conway,” the pollster writes. Paul “leads by 17 points among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.”
The TPM Poll Average shows Paul ahead 46.8-41.8. Trendlines seem to confirm Rasmussen’s read that the race is narrowing as it enters the final sprint.
