The new survey of Missouri by Public Policy Polling (D) shows President Obama trailing in the perennial swing state that he narrowly lost to John McCain in 2008 –Â unless, that is, the Republicans nominate Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich in 2012.
Obama was tested against several possible Republican nominees. Mike Huckabee leads Obama by 49%-42%, and Mitt Romney leads Obama by 47%-41%. However, Gingrich only edges out Obama by 45%-44%. And Obama pulls ahead of Palin, by a margin of 46%-43%.
Obama’s approval rating in the state is only 43%, with a disapproval of 52%. Huckabee has a personal favorable rating of 51%, with 29% unfavorable — the only Republican with an overall positive rating. Romney’s rating is 30%-42%, Gingrich is at 33%-48%, and Palin is at 39%-53%.
The survey of registered voters has a ±4.3% margin of error.
Missouri is a swing state in most national elections, often having close results at the statewide level. On the other hand, it may be starting to trend more to the Republicans, even more than any national swing. John McCain carried the state by less than one point over Barack Obama in 2008 — the first time that Missouri had voted for the loser of a presidential election since Democrat Adlai Stevenson carried it against Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.
