The new survey of the Washington state Senate race by Public Policy Polling (D) gives Democratic Sen. Patty Murray only a narrow lead over Republican former state Sen. Dino Rossi. At the same time, Rossi is on his way to the general election in the August 17 top two primary, well ahead of his insurgent Republican challenger.
Murray leads Rossi by just 49%-46%, and also leads Clint Didier, a former pro football player who has been endorsed by Sarah Palin, by a heftier 50%-39%. The survey of registered voters has a ±2.8% margin of error, and there is no previous survey of this race by PPP for direct comparison. The TPM Poll Average gives Murray an edge of 47.6%-46.1% over Rossi, and a lead of 47.6%-43.4% over Didier.
Rossi previously ran for governor in 2004, losing to Democrat Christine Gregoire by a mere 129 votes out of 2.7 million after a recount. He ran again in 2008, losing the rematch by a more significant 53%-47% in a very Democratic year. The big question is whether 2010 will be enough of a Republican-friendly year to help him topple the three-term incumbent Murray.
In the open primary, PPP shows Murray ahead with 47%, followed by Rossi at 33%, Didier with only 10%, and Republican businessman Paul Akers with 4%. So it seems nearly guaranteed that Murray will face Rossi in November. (Note: Under the top two system, it does make any difference if a candidate receives 50% in the first round. There would still be a general election in November featuring the top two candidates, regardless of party.)
