Two new polls of the West Virginia Senate special election both give Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin a narrow lead against Republican businessman John Raese, in the race to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.
From Rasmussen: Manchin 50%, Raese 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Manchin led by 49%-46%.
From Public Policy Polling (D): Manchin 51%, Raese 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.4% margin of error. In PPP’s numbers from last week, Manchin led by 50%-44%.
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This race has pitted Manchin’s very high popularity as governor against President Obama’s very high unpopularity in this state. Manchin was on the ropes about a month ago, with Raese having led in many polls for a time. But Manchin seems to have recovered in all the polls by distancing himself from national Democrats, while also attacking Raese’s right-wing positions on economic issues such as his opposition to the minimum wage.
“It looks like Joe Manchin will probably survive the Republican wave that will take down many Democrats across the country on Tuesday night,” writes Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “He started out the campaign with enormous popularity and has convinced enough voters that he won’t be a rubber stamp for unpopular national Dems.”
The TPM Poll Average gives Manchin a lead of 48.9%-46.2%.
